New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

The New England Patriots are surprisingly tied with Buffalo for the top spot in the AFC East. New England has finally found itself a QB in Drake May. May has thrown 10 TDs to just 2 INTs and has a QB rating of 112.5. The one negative is the sacks. The Pats have surrendered 18 sacks already this season, and that could lead to potential problems. The other issue is that they have not had success running the ball. Tennessee has had a slightly better defense than New England thus far. The Pats have played five one-possession games already, so it's hard to trust them in this spot, laying more than a TD on the road. The Pats will be playing their 3rd straight road game. A team that has won two straight road games and is playing on the road for the 3rd straight time covers just 40.3% of the time. I like Tennessee.

The Tennessee Titans are a mess, but at this point, they appear to be making a run for the 1st pick in the draft next year. Tennessee is trading away valuable talent in exchange for draft picks, and it doesn't look like the team is interested in winning. They have lost their last two games by a combined 62 points! The New England Patriots shocked Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets last week on the road in a 25-22 decision. It certainly shows the Pats are still fully engaged this season. The Patriots have a good track record vs. the Titans, as they are a lifetime 9-3 against them. I think the Pats come into this game with much confidence while the Titans sit another one out. Make the play on New England.

Head coaches Mike Vrabel and Bill Belichick know each other well having worked together in New England, and they're both outstanding defensive coaches. Tennessee is fifth defensively against the run, #10 on third down, and eighth in yards per rush allowed (4.1). The Titans offense is less balanced with star RB Derrick Henry out. The team is 15-5 UNDER the total on the road after outgaining an opponent by 150+ yards in their previous contest. New England is third defensively in yards allowed, No. 1 in points (16.1 per game), sixth on third down, and ninth in yards per rush allowed. The Patriots are 15-6 UNDER the total against quarterbacks with a completion percentage of 64% or better and 12-4 UNDER when the total is 42.5 to 49 points. Play this game to stay UNDER the total.

Tennessee doesn't have a lot of weapons for backup QB Ryan Tannehill, with an offense ranked #22 in passing, and#12 in rushing. This makes it easier for Bill Belichick and the Patriots to game plan, focusing on containing the run. New England's defense is stout upfront, allowing 95.5 yards rushing per game (sixth), while the strength of the defense is a suffocating and ball-hawking secondary. Tennessee is 9-4 UNDER the total in January games, while New England is 23-10 UNDER off a close loss by seven points or less to a division rival. The Patriots play their third straight home game after an embarrassing collapse against Miami on Sunday. Belichick will have them focused ahead and not looking backwards, as usual. One edge for the shaky Patriots' passing game is that Tennessee CB Adoree Jackson hasn't played since Week 13, while CB Malcolm Butler is on injured reserve. The Patriots are 37-14 ATS versus teams with a winning percentage between 51-60%, plus 80-48 ATS against teams that average 5.65+ yards per play. New England has covered five of the last six meetings, so back the home team in a defensive duel. Play the Patriots as a Max Play and also take the UNDER.

The defending champion New England has a ton of defensive depth again. They showcased it last week by holding the Lions to three points and 93 total yards. Detroit had just 21 yards passing and was 2-of-11 on third down. And there's no reason to risk the health of 42-year-old Tom Brady, so rookie QB Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer will get the most time. Tennessee's defense was much-improved under the new coaching staff in 2018, ranking eighth in yards allowed, third in points surrendered. Last week they held Philadelphia to 10 points and 227 total yards. The offense is a run-first attack, finishing #29 in the NFL in passing yards, #27 in points. Running the football chews up yards and the clock, keeping scoring opportunities down. In their last five preseason games, the Titans have averaged just 13.2 points per contest. Play this one to finish UNDER.