New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh won on the road in Atlanta a week ago despite converting barely a third of its third downs, finding other ways to put together a 20-13 win. New England's night was messier: they turned the ball over three times against Seattle, yet the Patriots still controlled the ball for over 34 minutes and pushed the game to the final possession before losing by three. Neither offense was explosive, but both could sustain drives, and New England's turnovers were more about mistakes than an inability to move the football. Clean up even one of those giveaways and New England's own offense gets extra possessions to work with, while Pittsburgh's defense, coming off a game where it bent without breaking, now faces a Patriots operation that's shown it can eat clock and stay on schedule. Two teams built around long, sustained drives tend to produce more plays and more scoring chances than a raw final score suggests, and that's exactly what a low-40s number is underselling here. Play the OVER today; both offenses will have enough possessions to make it happen.

The Pittsburgh defense has been troublesome in its first two games. Usually a team strength, the Steelers' defense has allowed over 30 points in both games and nearly 400 total yards a game. Both their games have flown way over the total. The New England Patriots are 1-1 and have had success moving the ball. The Patriots are averaging 5.8 yards per play. Both these teams are going to try to exploit the secondary of their opponent. Pittsburgh is allowing opposing QBs to average nine yards per pass attempt, and New England is allowing 9.5. Those are very high numbers in a game that should feature a lot of scoring. Pittsburgh's next game is overseas and a big one vs. the Vikings. I think this game goes OVER the total.

New England's offense is so bad that it broke an 85-year-old record last weekend during their 6-0 loss to San Diego. The Patriots became the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to allow 10 or fewer points in three straight games and lose all three. New England actually outgained the Chargers 257-241, holding them to 29 yards rushing and still lost. Bailey Zappe was 13 of 25 for 141 yards and wasn't any better than the former starter, Mac Jones. Pittsburgh hasn't shown much offensively either, coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona, but the Steelers still have a 7-5 record. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS following a loss and 16-5 ATS after an ATS loss. The Patriots are #28 in the NFL in total yards and dead last in scoring with only 12.3 points per game. New England is 10-2 UNDER this season, and the Steelers are 10-2 UNDER. The Patriots are 36-16 UNDER following a loss, and Pittsburgh is 18-7-1 UNDER as a favorite. The Steelers have won eight straight times SU/ATS following an ATS loss by an average margin of 6.0 points per game. Play the Steelers on the moneyline, and bet this game UNDER as a Max Play.

The New England Patriots suffered a 20-7 loss to the Miami Dolphins last week. It was an ugly game for the offense as the Pats managed just 271 total yards and turned the ball over 3 times. That put a lot of pressure on the defense that had to defend 3 extra possessions and poor field position, but they still allowed just 20 points. The Steelers shocked the Super Bowl runner-up in their opener 23-20 in overtime. It wasn't all that it looked like, as Pittsburgh ended the game with a 5-0 turnover margin. Despite 5 extra possessions and almost a complete overtime, the Steeler's offense generated just 267 total yards. I think the Pittsburgh offense is going to struggle all season without Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Pats appear to have similar issues and Mac Jones was dinged up vs Miami. I think both defenses are significantly better than the offenses they will face, and I like the UNDER in this one.

It was a nightmare of an offseason for Pittsburgh losing a pair of star players, plus a nightmare of an opener in heading to New England, a team that has had their number during the Brady/Belichick era. Coach Mike Tomin is 3-7 straight-up against the Pats and the Steelers are 5-13 ATS the last 18 meetings. New England will raise a Super Bowl banner, so the atmosphere for the home team will be electric. The Patriots won't focus on running against the strong Pittsburgh D-line, but will attack the linebackers and suspect secondary with their receivers and running backs out of the backfield while looking for mismatches, which Brady is so good at doing. And the defense is strong everywhere, as evidenced by their impressive playoff run. The Patriots are on a 40-17 ATS run, 39-16-2 ATS at home, and 27-12 ATS versus the AFC. Lay the points and play the Patriots.