New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles Point Spread Picks

I had the Patriots total UNDER last week when they tied Indianapolis 13-13 with Drake Maye on the sideline, and tonight looks built different. Maye spent this week's joint practices picking apart Philadelphia's top defense, and Philadelphia's first-team offensive line answered by handling New England's front just as cleanly on the other side. Neither staff has fully tipped its hand on how long the starters stay in tonight, and Nick Sirianni's track record says Jalen Hurts plays sparingly if at all, with Maye himself unlikely to see much more than a handful of snaps. That's fine, because the group stepping in behind Hurts has already flashed scoring ability of its own, and so has New England's second unit. Whichever quarterbacks take the shotgun snaps tonight, the practice tape says Philadelphia's offensive line was the best unit on the field all week, and that group travels with the backups too. Take Philadelphia on the spread tonight. The OVER goes on the same ticket.

Jake Elliott kicked a 49-yard field goal with no time remaining to give Philadelphia a 16-13 win over Baltimore after previously hitting the uprights on a field goal and an extra-point try. Kenny Pickett debuted with the Eagles and completed 14 of 22 for 89 yards and a TD. Tanner McKee was 6-for-16 for 39 yards. Coach Nick Sirianni is still 7-3 OVER in preseason, and the Eagles have gone OVER in their past four road preseason games. New England is 20-12 OVER its past 31 preseason games, including 9-3 OVER when the total is less than 37. The Patriots beat Carolina while using four quarterbacks in Week 1. Bailey Zappe went 12-for-20, and Joe Milton III, Drake Maye, and Jacoby Brissett combined for 6 of 12 for 63 yards. Philadelphia collapsed down the stretch last year as it was getting used to new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are incentivized to get things straightened out before the regular season. Take the Eagles and the OVER.

New England is pinning its hopes on Bill O'Brien, who returns for his second stint as offensive coordinator with the Patriots, and who is expected to mentor Mac Jones, who regressed last year after a decent rookie season. The Patriots appear to have a solid running game with Rhamondre Stevenson, who rushed for 1,040 yards on 5.0 yards per carry last season, and Ezekiel Elliott, the former NFL rushing leader in 2016 and 2018. New England's defense returns all four of its inside linebackers and the Patriots had a top 10 run defense. Philadelphia may get off to a slower start than expected as it lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Jalen Hurts will be a tough challenge for the Patriot defense as he completed 66.5 percent of his passes in 2022 while rushing for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns. However, Super Bowl losers are 4-19 ATS in Week 1 since 2000. Grab the points with the Patriots as a Max Play.

The New England Patriots will travel to Philadelphia for each team's second preseason game. The Eagles suffered a loss in their first preseason games to Pittsburgh while the Patriots won in beating the Washington Football Team. The game will start as a battle between a pair of former Alabama QB's as Jalen Hurts will go against Mac Jones. These games are usually decided by QB play, and I like the fact that Hurts has gotten some experience, and Jones no has some game film on what he is going to try and do to attack the Philadelphia defense. The NFL preseason has a long history of Game 2 outcomes when a team losses its first game and going up against a team that won its first game. Ovr the past 24 years a team that lost its first game of the preseason and playing against a team that won their first game are 104-65-3 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

New England is not a team you want to be playing after it comes off a loss as Bill Belichick is 50-27 ATS following a loss with the Patriots. Also, the Pats have had two weeks to prepare for this one, and Belichick is 23-18 ATS with rest. And if you need more, he is 60-34 ATS in revenge games. These teams haven't met since Philadelphia's Super Bowl win two seasons ago. The Eagles also come off a bye week after defeating punchless Chicago, 22-14. Carson Wentz finished 26 of 39 for 239 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey left the last game with an ankle injury, and he's questionable this week. New England's defense is the league-leader in yards (249.3 per game) and points (10.9) allowed. Philly gives up 23.7 points, and the Eagles are #8 in total yards allowed. The Patriots have stayed UNDER 15 of their last 21 games overall and five of their last six road contests. In addition, the Pats are 13-3 UNDER following a loss, is 46-20 ATS their last 66 games overall, and 15-7 ATS after an ATS loss. Play the Patriots and the UNDER.