New England Patriots vs New York Jets Point Spread Picks

New England scored 45 points against Las Vegas last Sunday, 16 more than in any of its other four games. The Patriots are 3-2, and their five finals were decided by 3, 17, 29, 3, and 28 points, including a 29-point loss at Jacksonville. The Jets are 2-3, with a 17-12 win over Cleveland and a 23-10 win at Tennessee on September 13. I had them with the points in that one. Their three losses came by 3 in overtime against Green Bay, 7 at Detroit and 11 at Chicago. New York lists running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell as doubtful. Hall has missed the last two games, in which the Jets scored 12 and 17, and Mitchell the last three, so the Jets will have to lean on a defense that has held three of its five opponents to 20 or fewer. That unit has allowed 19.2 points per game, and New England has allowed 18.8, so neither side has given up much. Take the Jets on the spread Sunday afternoon.

Drake Maye can take a significant step to win MVP honors here. He has a perfect patsy in the Jets this week. New York's defense has worn down from missing some of its top defenders, who were traded, to being on the field way too much. The Jets are giving up an average of 37 points per game in their last three games. Maye certainly can exploit this. He has the highest quarterback rating in the league, ranks fourth in passing yards, and has accounted for 29 touchdowns. New England is averaging 28.8 points during its last nine games. This includes scoring 27 points against the Jets in Week 11 when New York was playing better defense. The Patriots are going to do the heavy lifting to get this total OVER, but the Jets can chip in. This will be rookie Brady Cooks' fourth pro game behind center and first start at home. He has thrown for more yards in each succeeding game. New England has allowed an average of 22 points per game in its last seven games. Take the OVER.

The Patriots have certainly found their new leader in second-year quarterback Drake Maye (19 TDs, 5 INTs). The offense is 10th in the NFL in total yards per game and seventh on third down (42%). New England is 3-2 at home and 2-0 in divisional games, but this is their first chance to notch a valuable divisional win on home turf. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is keeping defenses off-balance, with the Pats on a 6-3 run OVER the total. New York QB Justin Fields (6 TDs, one INT) has been an upgrade over Tyrod Taylor, with wins over Cincinnati (39-38) and Cleveland (27-20), but the defense is 19th in yards allowed and 26th in points given up. The Jets are also on a 6-3 run OVER the total. Combine the Patriots (-1000) and the New York at New England OVER 43.5 (+105) into a 2-team parlay at +121 odds. 

New York continues to be overpriced as the Jets are favored by more than a touchdown in a game matching two of the worst in the NFL. They were trounced 37-15 by Pittsburgh, which isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut and the Aaron Rodgers experiment is fizzling as he clearly is way beyond his best days. Rodgers finished 24 of 39 with two interceptions and the much-anticipated acquisition of Davante Adams produced three catches for 30 yards. The Jets are 1-12 on the road against New England and they have lost 15 of the past 17 meetings. The Patriots, of course, have not been any better and they come off a 32-16 loss to Jacksonville in London. However, they are a live underdog getting this many points at home against a 2-5 team. Drake Maye was adequate against the Jaguars completing 26 of 37 for 276 yards with no picks, but the Patriots need to get the rushing game going. The past five meetings have gone UNDER, including last year's two games that went UNDER by an average of 10.8 points. The past four meetings have produced a grand total of 85 points. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

New England lost to Seattle in heartbreak fashion after the Patriots had defeated Cincinnati in the season opener. Jason Myers kicked a tying field goal with 55 seconds left in the fourth quarter and a winning 31-yarder in overtime for the Seahawks. However, first-year coach Jerod Mayo has the Patriots playing well especially in the running game as they have averaged 177.5 rushing yards this season. New York has allowed an average of 155 yards on the ground and Aaron Rodgers has not been overly productive, although the Jets did get a 24-17 victory over Tennessee. Rodgers threw for 176 yards and two TDs with mostly short passes, and the defense sacked Titans QB Will Levis four times. Jacoby Brissett has been adequate for the Patriots and finished 15 of 27 for 149 yards and no interceptions against Seattle. New England is 5-0-1 ATS its past six games as an underdog and the Jets are 0-6 ATS their past six Thursday games. New York is 0-4-1 ATS following a win, 1-6 ATS the past seven meetings, and 4-16 ATS its past 20 September games. The Patriots have won 15 of the past 16 meetings outright. Take the Patriots.