New England Patriots vs New York Giants Point Spread Picks

Combine the Patriots (-346) and the Rockets (-618) into a 2-team parlay at -201 odds.

HC Mike Vrabel wants to establish a winning culture in his first year, as New England has dominated its first two preseason games, outscoring opponents 68-30. Rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Efton Chism III each had touchdowns against the Vikings. Chism also had six receptions for 71 yards and a score. Drake Maye's backups, Joshua Dobbs and Ben Woolridge, combined for 18 of 29 for 161 yards and a TD. New York surprisingly has won and covered its first two games, as Brian Daboll has not traditionally placed much importance on preseason wins. He still is only 6-5 straight up and 4-7 ATS in the preseason. The Patriots have gone UNDER five of their past six Game 3 preseason games, and they are 6-2 UNDER their past eight preseason games overall. Jaxson Dart finished 14 of 16 for 137 yards as the Giants defeated the Jets 31-12, although it isn't clear whether he will be the No. 2 QB with Jameis Winston on the team. Russell Wilson isn't expected to play in this game. Take the points with the Patriots and the UNDER.

New England’s offense has drastically changed since the Tom Brady era. Currently, they rank second-to-last in the NFL, scoring just 14.1 points per game. In their recent game against Indianapolis, they suffered an ugly 10-6 loss at home, which fell short of the expected score by 26 points. The Patriots are 7-2 UNDER the total in their last nine and 19-7 UNDER on the road as favorites. They also tend to go UNDER the total after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game (17-4 UNDER). New England is 36-17 UNDER after a loss and 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 3 points or less. New England QB Mac Jones has five interceptions and the same number of TD passes in his last six games. Backup Bailey Zappe also threw a crucial pick against the Colts and doesn’t inspire fear in opposing defenses. The Giants pulled off a surprising 31-19 victory against Washington. Despite facing nine sacks, NY third-stringer Tommy DeVito managed to throw for 246 yards and three touchdowns. But the real story is that the Giants benefited from three lost fumbles by the Commanders. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 63-48 UNDER following a loss, and Brian Daboll in NY is 16-7 to the UNDER as an underdog, and 8-1 UNDER in non-conference games. Take the Patriots and Giants UNDER the total - Max Play. 

Brian Daboll is making his debut as Giants head coach and starting quarterback Daniel Jones figures to see little time in the opener, if any. The backups are Tyrod Taylor and Davis Webb and they will see the bulk of the action in this game. Taylor has been in the NFL since 2011 with six teams, and last season completed 60.7 percent for 966 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions for the Houston Texans. Webb was drafted in 2017, but has appeared in just one game and that was last year when he didn't attempt a pass. The Giants were 4-13 in 2021 and are in another rebuilding phase while losing much of the starting secondary. New England finished 10-7 with Mac Jones enjoying a fine rookie season although he is not expected to play in this game, and the backups are Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe. The Patriots are putting some new schemes in their offense this year with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels having gone to the Raiders. Hoyer is a 13-year veteran, who played in five games last year and completed 9 of 11 for 227 yards and a touchdown. Zappe set FBS season records for passing yards and passing TDs while playing for Western Kentucky last year and should see a lot of playing time against the Giants. The underdog has covered the last five preseason meetings and New England has covered its last three preseason openers. Bill Belichick is 59-45 straight up and 52-45-7 ATS in preseason. Take the Patriots.

Bill Belichick is 58-45 straight up and 52-44-7 ATS in his preseason career and New England has won and covered the first two games this year, including a 35-0 wipeout of Philadelphia last week. New York has lost its first two games making coach Joe Judge 0-2 straight up and 1-1 ATS as there was no preseason in his first season in 2020. The Patriots are on a current 8-2 ATS run in preseason and Mac Jones has looked great in practice and will start in place of Cam Newton in this matchup. In a joint practice with the Giants, the rookie completed 35 of 40, including 18 in a row. Daniel Jones will see his first action of the preseason for the Giants, but there still are doubts about his capabilities in the NFL and he was actually outplayed by Jones in the joint practice. The backups for the Giants are Brian Lewerke, who finished 11 of 19 for 108 yards against Cleveland and Mike Glennon (10 of 13 for 86 yards). Play the Patriots.