New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

New Orleans is well-coached and looking to bounce back after a poor showing in Carolina, and the Saints are 22-7 ATS as an underdog. The offense is balanced as they are sixth in rushing and fifth in scoring (30.1 points per game), while the defense is fourth in total yards allowed and fifth in points surrendered (21.1 points per game). New Orleans is on a 38-17 ATS run on the road (22-8 ATS as a road dog). New England has a rookie QB in Mac Jones with the offense just #26 in total yards and points, the third-worst in passing yards. The Saints are 19-10 ATS on the road in non-conference games, plus 25-12 ATS away from home after allowing 99 or fewer yards rushing in two straight contests. Play New Orleans.

Defending champion New England is not the same team as a year ago because of injuries and with problems on both sides of the line. The team has little pass rush or linebacking depth after the retirement of LB Rob Ninkovich and LB Donte Hightower was injured in the opener. Hightower is their best player on defense and the run defense was shredded by the Chiefs. On offense, QB Tom Brady's favorite target, WR Julian Edelman, was lost for the year in preseason and his replacement, slot WR Danny Amendola, got a concussion last week and is questionable for this one. This is the home opener for the Saints, who have an ace QB of their own in Drew Brees and great backfield depth with RB Marc Ingram and newcomer RB Adrian Peterson. The Saints are 13-5 ATS as an underdog, while Coach Sean Payton is 34-21 ATS as a dog. These teams played here in 2009 in a game pitting Brees against Brady and Bill Belichick against Payton. That was a New England team that also had defensive concerns and they got crushed 38-17, part of a 21-8 ATS run by the Saints against AFC East opponents. Take the points on New Orleans.

The Saints are a dog, but Coach Sean Payton gets his teams to play in preseason with a 20-14-3 spread mark. New Orleans has a fine QB rotation for August with Drew Brees, Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson. The offense was tops in the NFL in passing last year. New Orleans has new-looks on defense with rookie DT Sheldon Rankins (first round, #12, out of Louisville) and DT Nick Fairley. New Saints' LB Craig Robertson has stood out consistently throughout camp, drawing praise from coaches and teammates and drawing a lot of work with the first team, especially in sub packages. Thanks to Fairley and some swarming linebackers, the offense has had barely any success running the ball in practice. The Patriots are home, but have a big question mark at QB with young Jimmy Garoppolo having to start, with only rookie Jacoby Brissett behind him. They want to get Garoppolo experience, of course, but they have to be careful about injury as he will be quarterbacking the first four games of the regular season with Tom Brady's suspension. The Pats showed nothing in the preseason opener a year ago, also at home, in a 22-11 defeat to the Packers as a favorite. Garoppolo had no TDs with one pick as the offense had just 211 total yards. Play New Orleans and the UNDER.