Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins Point Spread Picks

Washington is giving it all for interim coach Bill Callahan, beating Miami (17-16) then covering in a 9-0 game to the undefeated 49ers. Washington is a huge dog again but it's 29-15 ATS on the road after having lost five or six of their previous seven games. Minnesota is in a sandwich spot on a short week, with a big win at Detroit Sunday and a pair of tough road games on deck at Kansas City and Dallas. NFL home favorites of 14.5+ points that average 130+ rushing yards per game are just 15-40 ATS. With the underdog covering seven of the last 10 meetings between these NFC teams, back the big dog that is playing hard. Take the points and play Washington.

The Minnesota Vikings have taken control of the NFC North with a 6-2 record, two games better than their closest division rival. They have done so by playing great defense, allowing 17 or fewer points in six straight games. A closer look shows that they have been rather fortunate as they have faced a lot of poor offensive teams. The Minnesota offense has come to life over the last four weeks as they have averaged 25 points per game in the stretch. Washington will be a bigger challenge for the Vikings defense as Kirk Cousins is having a very good season. He enters the game with a 102 passer rating for the season with 13 TDs and just four INTs. In his only start vs. Minnesota he put up 26 points and had a passer rating of 110.9 in that game. The total looks to be on the low side, so make the play on the OVER in this one.

Minnesota is dead? Not so fast! They have endured a three-game skid, yes, but this is still a well coached team with a dominant defense. The Minnesota defense ranks third in the NFL in yards allowed, fourth against the pass and tops in the points allowed (15.8 points per game). They are also still in first place in the NFC North. The Vikings can pass the football with QB Sam Bradford (nine TDs, one INT), a fine addition, throwing to speedy WR Stephon Diggs. Washington is not an elite defense at #15 against the pass, and #20 in points allowed. The Vikings have a winning record and are on a 36-15 ATS run, including 16-6 ATS after a defeat. The Redskins have not been impressive against good teams, losing to the Steelers and Cowboys and they are riding a winless streak, losing at Detroit as chalk and tying the Bengals. The Redskins are 5-15-1 ATS after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The wagering value is on the superior defense to win the game. Play Minnesota on the moneyline.

Many may have thought that the Washington win over Dallas last week was a fluke, but some of the numbers surrounding this team indicate otherwise. The Redskins needed a big win vs. a big team to get them believing. This may come as a shock to you, but which team leads the NFC in yard differential per play? Surprisingly, the answer is the Washington Redskins at +0.8. That figure ranks #2 in the league as they average 6.2 yards per play, while the defense allows just 5.4. The 6.2 yards per play is exactly what Denver averages, but no one would put the Washington offense in the same league as Denver. It is no secret that Minnesota has struggled on offense, breaking in a new QB and not having Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Things are getting worse as they average just 12.7 points per game over their last three. The Vikings' 4.9 yards per play ranks last in the NFC, so the Skins have a huge advantage in this game on both sides of the ball. Washington has played well on fieldturf as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10, and Minnesota has been an inconsistent team, logging a 2-7 ATS mark in their last nine when following a win. The line just isn't right here, so take Washington.