Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh took advantage of Baltimore's injury-depleted secondary last week as Ben Roethlisberger threw for 236 yards, and the Steelers stopped the Ravens on a two-point conversion attempt to win 20-19 on Sunday. Now the Steelers have only three days to recover from that tough, physical encounter and face Minnesota, which needs to redeem itself after handing Detroit its first win in a year. One team is tired here, off a huge win and the other is motivated to atone from a terrible loss. Kirk Cousins threw for 340 yards last week and a touchdown on 30 of 40 passing, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson had 11 catches for 182 yards for the Vikings, who lost Adam Thielen in the first quarter to an ankle injury. Roethlisberger is listed as probable with a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play tonight. Minnesota is getting a little healthier with LB Anthony Barr saying he will play, and CB Patrick Peterson is off the COVID-19/Reserve list. The Vikings are the more desperate team, and Cousins had a good game against the Lions while throwing no interceptions. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS their last five games versus teams with losing records and 0-5 ATS following an ATS win. Minnesota is a small favorite in this matchup, and the value is on them to win the game outright. Play the Vikings on the moneyline.

Minnesota upgraded the offensive line and the ground game in the offseason with rookie RB Dalvin Cook. The team looks solid across the board, and is coming off a 29-19 win over the Saints. The new and improved ground attack had 129 yards (Cook had 127, 5.8 yards per carry) and QB Sam Bradford was 27-of-32 for 346 yards, three TDs, no picks, only one sack. The Vikings are on a 39-17 ATS run, including 12-5 ATS against winning teams. Minnesota is on short rest after winning Monday night, but the team is 17-7 against the spread when playing on six or fewer days of rest. Pittsburgh won the opener but was fortunate to do so against the always rebuilding Browns, winning 21-18 as nine-point chalk. The team was not in mid-season form with 13 penalties, as the offense was 5-of-13 on third down and had a turnover. They are banged up at linebacker and the secondary is stocked with young players, making this a great spot for the talented dog to keep it close. Go with the points and Minnesota.

The preseason can be a good time to back underdogs, particulary in weeks one and four when so little is at stake. Here we find Pittsburgh as a dog despite winning a division title in 2014. That's because Minnesota went 4-0 last August under Mike Zimmer. However, Zimmer was a rookie head coach then and rookie coaches often want to show the fans and their new bosses that they hired the right man for the job. Zimmer has nothing to prove in 2015, coming off a decent inaugural season. This is still a rebuilding Vikings squad, one that has a young QB rotation and a defense ranked #25 against the run (121.4 yards per game). They face a talented and deep Steelers roster, one with a good QB rotation in Ben Roethlisberger, Landry Jones and Taj Boyd. Jones has shown improvement as the Steelers #3 QB, making the kind of progress over the past several practices in training camp that generally seemed to elude him over his first two seasons. A big reason is that he is playing with the big boys, throwing to targets such as Antonio Brown, Heath Miller, Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, plus they add speedy rookie WR Sammie Coates (Auburn). This offense ranked #2 in the NFL in passing (301.6 ypg), #16 in rushing and #7 in points (27.3 points per game). Coach Mike Tomlin is 20-13 in preseason with all this talent, partly because he demands physical play even in August when many opponents are going through the motions to try to stay healthy. Even in practice the last week he was pleased with the physical play. This is a deep, talented young linebacking corps and the secondary has a slew of players fighting for roster spots with 26-year-old CB Cortez Allen and Mike Mitchell, plus rookies Senquez Golson (second round), Doran Grant and Gerod Holliman. Pittsburgh is on a 5-1 spread run and this shapes up as a good matchup for them in a high-scoring tilt. Take the Steelers and the OVER.