Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants Point Spread Picks

Kyler Murray is still getting used to a new offense in Minnesota after Arizona released him and the Vikings scooped him up, and Kevin O'Connell has a track record of keeping his starting quarterback to a drive or two in a preseason opener. J.J. McCarthy will get run behind him, but this isn't a group that's had months to build chemistry together. Across the field, new Giants head coach John Harbaugh isn't committing to any real workload for Jaxson Dart, and he's been blunt about his plan for the rest of the roster: nobody's playing the whole game because there are ninety bodies in the building that all need a look. That's a coach signaling shallow, choppy snap counts up and down the depth chart, not a green light for his skill players to go score. Spread that thin across two teams, and you get a game defined by fresh combinations trying to execute together for the first time, not rhythm and scoring. A brand-new Vikings starter still learning the offense and a Giants staff intent on rotating bodies through by design point the same direction. This number was built for teams playing normal snap counts with continuity behind center, and neither sideline is offering that Saturday afternoon. The UNDER is the play here, and I don't see either sideline changing that.

Minnesota is only a slight favorite despite playing the 2-12 Giants, as the Vikings are out of the playoffs and focused on developing their young quarterback, J.J. McCarthy. New York got a good performance from their rookie QB, Jaxson Dart, who threw for 246 yards and two TDs with one interception against the Commanders last week. He also ran nine times for 63 yards. The Giants might get the No. 1 pick if they keep losing, but it's unlikely interim head coach Mike Kafka is interested in that scenario, as he is not expected to remain the head coach for next season. The Giants are on a 6-1 ATS run against the NFC North. Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its past nine games and 1-5 ATS following a win. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in Week 16. Minnesota has gone UNDER five of their past six games, and it is #25 in the NFL, scoring 20.6 points per game. New York is #22, averaging 21.4. Take the Giants and the UNDER.

Both teams have quarterback troubles as Minnesota will start Sam Darnold, who is 21-35 as starter in his career. Rookie J.J. McCarthy will miss the entire season with an injury. Daniel Jones started only six games for New York last year and went 1-5 with two touchdown passes and six interceptions and that was after signing a four-year, $160 million contract. The Giants, however, are 5-0-1 ATS their past six home games and they finished last season on a 6-1 ATS run overall. The Vikings are 0-4-1 ATS their past five September games and 0-6-2 ATS against NFC East opponents. Minnesota lost six of its last seven games last season with a 1-4-2 ATS mark. New York did improve its offensive line and Jones has an excellent new target in rookie receiver Malik Nabers, who finished as LSU's all-time leader in receiving yards. The Giants have gone UNDER 12 of their past 18 games and they allowed 24 points per game in 2023-24. The Vikings averaged 20 points and don't figure to get any better. Take the Giants and the UNDER.

These teams combined for 51 points on Christmas Eve but I feel this one is going to come in UNDER this total. The GIants average just 20.5 points per game on the road this season while allowing only 21.9 per game. Over the last four games (three of which were on the road), the G-Men gave up an average of just 17.8 ppg. Minnesota's pass defense is their weakness, allowing opponents sto complete 66% of passes. However, over the past three seasons, this Giants team is 25-11 UNDER when facing a team like Minnesota that allows over 60% completion rate. And over that span, New York is 17-5 UNDER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350+ yards per game. They are also 27-12 UNDER over that time frame as an underdog. Look for this game to come in UNDER the total. New York knows that a road shoot-out here is not in their best interest and I expect them to play well on defense and try to turn this into a grind-out time possession type of game. Aiding that goal is the fact that the G-Men get back top cornerback Adorre' Jackson and safety Xavier McKinney in this game - both of whom missed the first game. They will be critical in helping contain Justin Jefferson. If Jefferson can be slowed, and the Giants can get the kind of pressure on Kirk Cousins they did the first go around (4 sacks and 11 hits), then this game should be lower scoring than the first one. Take the UNDER here.