Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Point Spread Picks

Tua Tagovailoa is in Atlanta now, and Miami's offense Friday belongs to Malik Willis and Quinn Ewers, with undrafted free agent Cam Miller pushing for reps behind them. Mike McDaniel wants some starters involved, but new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has already signaled that his top players get their real work in joint practices, not games, meaning Miami is trotting out a defense that's young and thin by its own coaches' description. Washington counters with Jayden Daniels facing a plan that's still unresolved, and left tackle Laremy Tunsil done for the year with a triceps injury, forcing Brandon Coleman into a first look at left tackle. A patchwork offensive line breaking in a new starter, a thin Miami secondary, and two rosters full of players auditioning for jobs is a recipe for broken coverages and busted assignments, not a tight, clean game. Rookie receiver Caleb Douglas has already flashed big-play speed in camp for Miami, and reserve quarterbacks pressing to make a roster tend to let it fly rather than play it safe. Take the OVER.

The disappointing Miami season got a reprieve last week in a surprising 30-13 rout of Buffalo. They're a favorite in this week's international tilt, but have flopped in that role, losing both times they've been favored, to the Patriots (33-27) and Carolina (27-24). Washington has a nice matchup advantage, seventh in the NFL in rushing with 135.2 yards per game behind RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (470 yards, 4.5 ypc). Plus, mobile QB Marcus Mariota (6 TDs, 4 INTs) is a veteran starter, stepping in for injured Jayden Daniels. The Miami defense is 26th against the run, allowing 139.7 yards per game, 23rd on third down, and 24th in points surrendered. Miami will likely rely on its run game to control the clock, and the Dolphins are 3-1 UNDER in their past four games. Washington needs a big shift from its defensive mindset after allowing 38-plus points in back-to-back losses. They have the front seven to get after Tua, and if they can disrupt the pocket and force a turnover, I expect them to cover and possibly win outright. Play Washington ATS, and bet the Commanders-Dolphins UNDER. 

Washington's offense has rookie QB Jayden Daniels along with backups in unimpressive Jeff Driskel and raw Sam Hartman. They come off a 20-17 loss at the Jets and play another road game. Miami won't risk an injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa and the backups are Mike White and Skylar Thompson. The Dolphins come off a 20-13 win over Atlanta despite just 265 yards on offense while going 5-of-19 on third and fourth down. It was a run-heavy attack with 141 yards on the ground. The Dolphins are a combined 6-3 UNDER the total in Weeks 1 and 2 of preseason since 2019. Take Washington/Miami UNDER the total.

Washington is 4-1-1 ATS against teams with winning records and the Commanders will try to snap a three-game skid this week against Miami, which has won two in a row. However, the Dolphins past five wins have been against teams that have a current combined record of 15-41. Miami is 4-4 ATS its past eight games and Washington is 4-1-1 as an underdog overall and 4-1-1 ATS overall as a dog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Commanders have had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving Day and they have made some coaching changes since then as defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer were relieved of their duties and head coach Ron Rivera will take over play-calling duties on defense. Washington is 21-8 UNDER its past 29 home games, 10-2 UNDER as a home underdog and 8-3 UNDER overall after allowing more than 30 points its previous game. The Dolphins are 9-3 UNDER after a win by more than 14 points. Take the points with the Commanders and the UNDER.