Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami coach Mike McDaniel has not dialed up his best offensive plays, averaging 16.5 points. The defense has been terrific allowing 9.5 points after a 13-6 victory over Washington. The Dolphins are on a 4-1 run UNDER the total in preseason. Tampa has also shown nothing on offense, averaging 12 points. The Bucs remained in Florida last week to play Jacksonville and lost, 20-7, with just 207 total yards. The defense is deep and is allowing 17 points per game. Take Miami/Tampa Bay UNDER the total — Max Play. 

Miami has a new coach in Mike McDaniel, who will try to continue the momentum of the Dolphins winning eight of their last nine games in 2021, though it wasn't enough for Brian Flores to keep his job. Tua Tagovailoa will likely have a chip on his shoulder after hearing rumors that Miami was trying to get Tom Brady after Tagovailoa played 13 games for the Dolphins and passed for 2,653 yards in 2021. Teddy Bridgewater is the backup and in his eighth NFL season. He threw for 3,052 yards with 18 touchdowns in 14 games with Denver last year. Skylar Thompson is the third-string QB and a rookie seventh-round pick from Kansas State who has looked great in camp. Brady has said he will miss this game for personal reasons, although it wasn't likely he would have played much anyway. Blaine Gabbert is the backup and is in his 11th NFL season. He managed to get into six games in 2021 and completed seven of 11 pass attempts. The No. 3 QB is Kyle Trask, and he has struggled some in training camp, throwing interceptions. Ryan Griffin is the other backup and has hung around for many years, but it has mostly been on practice squads. Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles was 7-9 straight up and 8-8 ATS in the preseason with the Jets. The road team has covered 11 of the last 12 preseason meetings between these teams, and Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight openers. Miami has covered five straight versus NFC South teams in preseason. Take the Dolphins.

Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady just faced a coaching staff that knows all about him, squeezing out a 19-17 win at the Patriots as a 7-point favorite. Now he faces a Miami club coached by former Patriot coordinator Brian Flores. Miami is on a 22-10 ATS spread run and comes off a loss to the Colts, 27-17, one week after a 31-28 OT loss at Las Vegas. QB Jacoby Brissett (2 TDs, 1 INTs) has filled in well for injured starter Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are 18-6 ATS as a dog, including five straight as a road dog, plus 7-1 ATS after a defeat. Tampa Bay is home from a long two-game road trip to the West Coast where they faced the Rams (a 34-24 loss) and at New England in the Sunday night showdown. The Buccaneers have been depleted by injuries to the secondary. Cornerback Jamel Dean (knee) and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. (concussion) are out, while CB Carlton Davis (quadriceps) was injured against the Pats. They've been so desperate for help, they signed CB Richard Sherman and threw him in as a starter. In addition, TE Rob Gronkowski (ribs) is ailing and not expected back. With Tampa Bay 0-10 ATS after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three consecutive games, back the big dog. Play Miami.

Miami got a win for new coach Brian Flores in Week 1 in a 34-27 shootout with Atlanta. That was at home and now they head out on the road. Despite all the points, it's not an impressive QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Rudock and Josh Rosen. Rosen had no TDs, one pick and took two sacks, while the ground game was weak with 96 yards on 32 carries. They come off a losing 2018 campaign and the roster has a lot of holes. Tampa Bay plays its first home game and has a head coaching advantage with Bruce Arians. They put up 28 points and almost 500 yards at Pittsburgh last week as QB Ryan Griffin threw for 330 yards, one TD and no picks. Throw in veteran QBs Jameis Winston and Blaine Gabbert and their preseason rotation is very good. Arians hired Todd Bowles as defensive coordinator and he brings in an attacking 3-4 defense. The home team has the superior QB rotation and a coaching staff that wants to impress the fan base. Play Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay has plenty to prove after a last place finish in 2017. The Buccaneers had an impressive offseason, shoring up their weakest area, the secondary, adding three players with a pair of second-round picks in cornerbacks M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis, along with fourth-round pick safety Jordan Whitehead. The young Bucs upgraded their defensive line by adding Jason Pierre-Paul, Vinny Curry, Beau Allen and Mitch Unrein, along with 12th overall pick mammoth DL Vita Vea. Tampa Bay's offense had the ninth ranked passing attack and returns QBs Jameis Winston and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. The defense played great last preseason allowing 13.9 points per game and they face a Miami Dolphins squad with all kinds of changes and weak areas. Starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is off knee surgery and is wearing a brace, so expect to see more of backup QBs David Fales, Brock Osweiler and Bryce Petty, who have all been released by other teams. They let Jarvis Landry walk, so there is no clear No. 1 receiver on the roster. The Dolphins are employing a committee approach that includes some combination of newcomer Danny Amendola, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant. The tight end unit also looks shaky. And speaking of shaky, Miami's defense is short on depth to a unit that rank #29 in points allowed with a linebacker corps that was one of the NFL's slowest unit in 2017. The visitors match up well and are more than capable of winning the game. Play Tampa Bay to win this one straight-up.