Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Tampa Bay looks to keep its division title hopes alive, one game behind Carolina. QB Baker Mayfield (23 TDs, 8 INTs) got top targets Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back from injuries in Week 15. They face a Miami defense that ranks 19th in yards allowed, 22nd in points allowed, and 14th on third down. Miami is out of any postseason play. In this lost season, WR Tyreek Hill is out for the year while QB Tua Tagovailoa has been benched. Rookie seventh-round draft pick QB Quinn Ewers (0 TDs, 2 INTs) made his first start last week in a 45-21 loss at home to Cincinnati. Play Tampa Bay.

Miami coach Mike McDaniel has not dialed up his best offensive plays, averaging 16.5 points. The defense has been terrific allowing 9.5 points after a 13-6 victory over Washington. The Dolphins are on a 4-1 run UNDER the total in preseason. Tampa has also shown nothing on offense, averaging 12 points. The Bucs remained in Florida last week to play Jacksonville and lost, 20-7, with just 207 total yards. The defense is deep and is allowing 17 points per game. Take Miami/Tampa Bay UNDER the total — Max Play. 

Miami has a new coach in Mike McDaniel, who will try to continue the momentum of the Dolphins winning eight of their last nine games in 2021, though it wasn't enough for Brian Flores to keep his job. Tua Tagovailoa will likely have a chip on his shoulder after hearing rumors that Miami was trying to get Tom Brady after Tagovailoa played 13 games for the Dolphins and passed for 2,653 yards in 2021. Teddy Bridgewater is the backup and in his eighth NFL season. He threw for 3,052 yards with 18 touchdowns in 14 games with Denver last year. Skylar Thompson is the third-string QB and a rookie seventh-round pick from Kansas State who has looked great in camp. Brady has said he will miss this game for personal reasons, although it wasn't likely he would have played much anyway. Blaine Gabbert is the backup and is in his 11th NFL season. He managed to get into six games in 2021 and completed seven of 11 pass attempts. The No. 3 QB is Kyle Trask, and he has struggled some in training camp, throwing interceptions. Ryan Griffin is the other backup and has hung around for many years, but it has mostly been on practice squads. Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles was 7-9 straight up and 8-8 ATS in the preseason with the Jets. The road team has covered 11 of the last 12 preseason meetings between these teams, and Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight openers. Miami has covered five straight versus NFC South teams in preseason. Take the Dolphins.

Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady just faced a coaching staff that knows all about him, squeezing out a 19-17 win at the Patriots as a 7-point favorite. Now he faces a Miami club coached by former Patriot coordinator Brian Flores. Miami is on a 22-10 ATS spread run and comes off a loss to the Colts, 27-17, one week after a 31-28 OT loss at Las Vegas. QB Jacoby Brissett (2 TDs, 1 INTs) has filled in well for injured starter Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are 18-6 ATS as a dog, including five straight as a road dog, plus 7-1 ATS after a defeat. Tampa Bay is home from a long two-game road trip to the West Coast where they faced the Rams (a 34-24 loss) and at New England in the Sunday night showdown. The Buccaneers have been depleted by injuries to the secondary. Cornerback Jamel Dean (knee) and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. (concussion) are out, while CB Carlton Davis (quadriceps) was injured against the Pats. They've been so desperate for help, they signed CB Richard Sherman and threw him in as a starter. In addition, TE Rob Gronkowski (ribs) is ailing and not expected back. With Tampa Bay 0-10 ATS after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three consecutive games, back the big dog. Play Miami.

Miami got a win for new coach Brian Flores in Week 1 in a 34-27 shootout with Atlanta. That was at home and now they head out on the road. Despite all the points, it's not an impressive QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Rudock and Josh Rosen. Rosen had no TDs, one pick and took two sacks, while the ground game was weak with 96 yards on 32 carries. They come off a losing 2018 campaign and the roster has a lot of holes. Tampa Bay plays its first home game and has a head coaching advantage with Bruce Arians. They put up 28 points and almost 500 yards at Pittsburgh last week as QB Ryan Griffin threw for 330 yards, one TD and no picks. Throw in veteran QBs Jameis Winston and Blaine Gabbert and their preseason rotation is very good. Arians hired Todd Bowles as defensive coordinator and he brings in an attacking 3-4 defense. The home team has the superior QB rotation and a coaching staff that wants to impress the fan base. Play Tampa Bay.