Miami Dolphins vs St. Louis Rams

Losing their starting QB last week for the year means the Rams have to look at week four a little different. They will be getting QBs Shaun Hill and Austin Davis more time as their roles increase. Coach Jeff Fisher even hinted as much saying this week. The running game must become even stronger to lessen Hill's load, and Fischer and his offensive coordinator have always been run-first coaches (142 rushing yards last week). That ground game keeps the chains and the clock moving and can hold scores down. They play a physical, hard-hitting style on both sides of the ball and that was evident last week, allowing 14 points and holding the Browns to 178 total yards. This is a potentially powerful defense with talent and depth. The defense will be fine this week against a rebuilding Miami offensive line. Miami is a conservative offense too, averaging 18 points per game. They are coming off their best offensive showing (25 points), but that was against the awful Dallas defense (and they had only 11 points going into the fourth). Now they face a strong and deep St. Louis defense, and Miami is 5-1 UNDER the total in week four of preseason. Take the points on the Rams and play the UNDER.

I know, I know. I keep going with Miami and they keep losing. But I admit I like them again this week. They are like some addicting drug to me. I know they are bad but they seem to represent very good value each week, this one included. They will win one of these weeks. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 6 or more consecutive losses are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is in a letdown situation here as they are riding high and now have to try to "stay up" against the league's only winless team. When teams turn things around as dramatically as the Rams have, I always take a peek at turnovers. Why? Because I want to know how much of the turnaround is skill vs. luck. Well, low and behold, the Rams went from two takeaways in their first three games (1-2 SU) to eight in their last three games (3-0 SU). The Dolphins defense (3rd best overall) will have success against St. Louis. Miami owns the best pass defense in the league, allowing a stingy 127 yards per game through the air. That's a nice matchup against the Rams. With their speedy receivers slowed by the grass field in Miami, the Rams passing game could struggle in this one. I've got tons of situational trends pointing Miami's way including one that involves very poor teams that have failed to cover the spread in most of their recent games that is 37-8 ATS. Backing the Fish again this week. Bet 55 to win 50 on Miami at +6 and 50 to win 115 on the Dolphins to win outright.