Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

San Francisco looked dominant in its opener, but the receiving corps that takes the field today is missing pieces from that win. Rookie receiver De'Zhaun Stribling is out, Ricky Pearsall is on injured reserve, and George Kittle is questionable, leaving the 49ers' passing game to rely on players well down the depth chart. Miami was outplayed by Las Vegas last week and turned the ball over twice, and there is no getting around how far apart these two teams looked in Week 1. But covering a number this size doesn't require Miami to play well. It requires San Francisco's offense to hit the same explosive output it managed a week ago without some of the players who got it there, and that is not a safe assumption for a double-digit number. Home favorites lose key weapons and still cover all the time, but rarely by the same margin they won by when everyone was healthy. Take Miami with the points.

Each of these teams checks in at 6-8, which is well below their preseason expectations. San Francisco has balance on offense with QB Brock Purdy (15 TDs, 9 INTs) and a ground that averages 4.8 yards per carry, the sixth-best in the league. The defense is third in yards allowed giving up a total of 19 points in the last two games. They've had extra time to rest and prepare after a Thursday night game. Miami is on a 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS run after a 20-12 loss to Houston as QB Tua Tagovailoa had three interceptions. They have no balance on offense ranked 26th in rushing yards while averaging 3.9 yards per carry. The Dolphins are on a 2-6 ATS run at home. Play San Francisco. 

Miami (13-7 ATS run) has won five straight as the offense is clicking after averaging 34.7 points in November. The Dolphins are third in total yards on offense behind QB Tua Tagovailoa (19 TDs, 3 INTs) and sixth in points (25.6 pg). You need a strong run defense when facing San Francisco and Miami is 11th in rush defense. And first-year Miami head coach Mike McDaniel was the 49ers' offensive coordinator last season. Miami is 11-3 ATS against teams with a completion percentage of 61%+ in the second half of the season. San Francisco looks for balance on offense, ranked 15th in the NFL in points scored, and has averaged just 21.8 points at home. And QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Christian McCaffrey are hurting with knee injuries. Play Miami.

Miami is 1-3 while playing a tough early schedule as the losses have been against New England, Buffalo, and Seattle. Now the Dolphins travel to San Francisco, which has been decimated with injuries. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to practice this week after missing two games, but he still is questionable for this game. And the backups, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, do not exude confidence. Mullens committed three turnovers in the 49ers' 25-20 loss to the Eagles on Sunday night, although Beathard was decent completing 14 of 19 with no interceptions. San Francisco's only wins this season have been against the moribund Jets and Giants, and the Niners' fortunes could be evening out after overachieving last season in their run to the Super Bowl. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 29 for 45 and 315 yards in Miami's 31-23 loss to the Seahawks. And although he eventually will lose his job to Tua Tagovailoa, he still has the veteran presence to keep his team in the game. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS their last 16 games and 8-2 ATS after a loss. The 49ers are 7-20-1 ATS as home favorites and 6-14 ATS their last 20 October games. Take the Dolphins.