Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers

Each of these teams checks in at 6-8, which is well below their preseason expectations. San Francisco has balance on offense with QB Brock Purdy (15 TDs, 9 INTs) and a ground that averages 4.8 yards per carry, the sixth-best in the league. The defense is third in yards allowed giving up a total of 19 points in the last two games. They've had extra time to rest and prepare after a Thursday night game. Miami is on a 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS run after a 20-12 loss to Houston as QB Tua Tagovailoa had three interceptions. They have no balance on offense ranked 26th in rushing yards while averaging 3.9 yards per carry. The Dolphins are on a 2-6 ATS run at home. Play San Francisco. 

Miami (13-7 ATS run) has won five straight as the offense is clicking after averaging 34.7 points in November. The Dolphins are third in total yards on offense behind QB Tua Tagovailoa (19 TDs, 3 INTs) and sixth in points (25.6 pg). You need a strong run defense when facing San Francisco and Miami is 11th in rush defense. And first-year Miami head coach Mike McDaniel was the 49ers' offensive coordinator last season. Miami is 11-3 ATS against teams with a completion percentage of 61%+ in the second half of the season. San Francisco looks for balance on offense, ranked 15th in the NFL in points scored, and has averaged just 21.8 points at home. And QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Christian McCaffrey are hurting with knee injuries. Play Miami.

Miami is 1-3 while playing a tough early schedule as the losses have been against New England, Buffalo, and Seattle. Now the Dolphins travel to San Francisco, which has been decimated with injuries. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to practice this week after missing two games, but he still is questionable for this game. And the backups, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, do not exude confidence. Mullens committed three turnovers in the 49ers' 25-20 loss to the Eagles on Sunday night, although Beathard was decent completing 14 of 19 with no interceptions. San Francisco's only wins this season have been against the moribund Jets and Giants, and the Niners' fortunes could be evening out after overachieving last season in their run to the Super Bowl. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 29 for 45 and 315 yards in Miami's 31-23 loss to the Seahawks. And although he eventually will lose his job to Tua Tagovailoa, he still has the veteran presence to keep his team in the game. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS their last 16 games and 8-2 ATS after a loss. The 49ers are 7-20-1 ATS as home favorites and 6-14 ATS their last 20 October games. Take the Dolphins.

Things have gotten a little bit complicated in the Bay Area. The only thing that would bring into question Jim Harbaugh's decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Colin Kaepernick would be a loss in a game they were supposed to win. Ooops. I am not saying it wasn't the right decision. I think it was. But, now the confidence that surrounded this team is cracking a bit, thanks to having lost or tied three of their last seven games. Teams now have tape in multiple games on what to do to have a chance against the Niners as the Giants destroyed them, and the Rams have now beaten or tied them twice. Most expect a big rebound here, but laying 10 points in the NFL is a tall order, especially in a game that is expected to be very low-scoring. The spread in this game reprsents over 25% of the entire total. Miami is not a great team, but they are capable and their defense, which has allowed under 21 points per game on average, keeps them in most games. Last week they kep the high-powered Patriots to their lowest output of the season. They have allowed more than 24 points in just two games all season and San Francisco's offense is decent, but not great. Underdogs of more than a touchdown this season are 24-14 ATS. And, Miami gets up for good opponents. They have gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. winning teams. Take Miami to stay within this huge number.