Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh is laying too many points for a 2-4 team whose only two wins came against the Bengals and the Chargers, and Miami has covered its last two games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has given the Dolphins some stability at the QB position as he went 23 of 35 for 282 yards and a touchdown in last week's game against Buffalo. The Dolphins also had 109 yards rushing as they nearly matched the Bills in total offense yards with 381 which was a season-high for Miami. Fitzpatrick threw for 411 yards and three TDs versus the Steelers while playing for Tampa Bay in 2018. Mason Rudolph is expected to start for the Steelers after missing a game with a concussion. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS its last six games following a bye week. The normally solid Steelers defense is only #17 in the league in yards allowed and #19 in rushing defense. Pittsburgh's starting defensive end, Stephon Tuitt (torn pectoral), is out for the season. Look for Miami to keep this one relatively close and to stay within the number. Grab the points with the Dolphins.

Miami beat the Steelers earlier in the year but that was at home in a game in which Ben Roethlisberger twisted his knee. That game was also in the mid-season South Beach sun. Now the Dolphins head north to frigid Pittsburgh, with QB questions. Miami is likely gion with a backup QB and the Fin's defense is pretty bad, allowing opposing offenses to rack up over 400 yards per game on the road. The Miami linebackers can't cover and the secondary is porous. That's a bad mix against a talented and balanced Pittsburgh offense with a wealth of playoff experience. The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS against teams with winning marks, plus 6-21 ATS after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game. Miami is also 7-1 UNDER the total in playoff games. Miami will look for ball control to take the pressure of the QB, but the Steelers defense is solid up front at #13 against the run. Pittsburgh is on a 14-6 run UNDER the total, including 20-8-1 UNDER against the AFC. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite in this range (7.5 to 10 points). The Steelers have rabid fans and this is their third consecutive home game. Play the Steelers and the UNDER.

The injury list for these teams are substantial, but there aren't any very critical players on the list, so just a challenge of quality depth for both. Pittsburgh had a bad game vs. instate rival Philadelphia, scoring just three points. Otherwise, they have been 4-0, winning by a combined 77 points. Miami has had a tough schedule, with games vs. Cincinnati, New England, and Seattle. They lost on the road to Seattle by just two, and on the road to New England by just seven. They are now home and the line certainly looks like it is juiced for the Steelers with anticipation they will get a lot of action. The solution for Miami is simple, they have been a turnover machine, coughing the ball up 11 times in their last four games. That actually works in their favor, as home dogs of 10 or fewer points that have committed more than 10 turnovers in their last four games are 70-49-4 ATS, if they are .250 or less. The Steelers have never had a lot of success as a big road favorite, and there have been a lot of good teams that have failed in this role, in fact, since 1989, Pittsburgh is 2-13 ATS on the road as a favorite of -8 or more. Ryan Tannehill has faced the Steelers one time and put up 34 points in a win. I think Miami comes out focused, and makes this into a game. Grab the points on Miami.