Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles

Miami has the top offense in the league with 498.7 yards per game. QB Tua Tagovailoa (14 TDs, 5 INTs) has great weapons in RBs De'Von Achane (460 yards, 12.1 ypc), RB Raheem Mostert (429 yards, 5.7 ypc), and WR Tyreek Hill (814 yards). They're No. 1 in rushing (181.8 yards per contest) and points (37.2 per game), plus seventh on third down (44.07%). NFL road teams like the Dolphins where the line is +3 to -3 that force one or fewer turnovers per game are 58-27 ATS after back-to-back contests with a turnover margin of minus -1 or less. Philadelphia comes home from a two-game road trip where they averaged 18.5 points, including a 20-14 loss to the Jets. The defense is just 22nd on third down (41.56%). NFL home favorites off a road loss are 27-64 ATS in the first half of the season, and home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a two-game road trek are 4-24 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Play Miami.

Miami has split its first two games in Mike McDaniels first year as coach, and he played all three of his quarterbacks last week against the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa was six of eight for 58 yards, Skylar Thompson was nine of 10 for 129 yards, and Teddy Bridgewater completed 10 of 20 for 119 yards as the Dolphins showed their depth at the QB position. Philadelphia coach Nick Siriani is in his second year, and he is now 1-3-1 straight up and 1-3-1 ATS in preseason after barely beating Cleveland 21-20 last week. Gardner Minshew was 14 of 17 passing for 142 yards for the Eagles, and Reid Sinnett threw a 55-yard pass to Devon Allen, which was the bulk of his 69 yards passing. The Dolphins went UNDER by 13.5 points against the Raiders. Philly QB Jalen Hurts has looked good in practice, but it's doubtful he'll get any playing time in this game. Miami, with a new coach, would like to go into the regular season with a win in front of its home fans while the Eagles have 12 players on the injured or PUP list. Back the Dolphins and the UNDER.

The Dolphins sit at 2-9 and come off an embarrassing 41-24 drubbing by the Browns on the primetime stage on national television. While we were on the Browns in that one, a lot of bettors got burned and no one wants a part of this team right now. Here's the thing, though. They are facing a team that is just 5-6 and is getting outscored on the season. Miami is at home, and getting double-digits here against a losing team. It's too much. The bookmakers agree, as this game opened at 7.5 and has been bet up to 10 by the public. In their last 32 late-season games vs. bad teams like Miami (teams getting outscored by 6+ points per game), the Eagles are 10-22 ATS. Under Doug Pederson, this team is just 4-12 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams like the Fins (teams allowing 6+ yards per play). Despite appearances, the Dolphins have some things to play for here. This is their best remaining chance to play spoiler to a playoff contender. And, there are a lot of young players trying to make a name for themselves in the remaining games. Take the points in this one.

Miami has plenty of talent on both sides of the line and is a dog to a .500 Philadelphia squad. They've simplified the offense since the coaching change was made and QB Ryan Tannehill has benefited. The offense looked dominant during consecutive wins of 38-10 at Tennessee on Oct. 18 and 44-26 at home over Houston on Oct. 25 in interim coach Dan Campbell's first two games. But Miami has allowed 36 and 33 point the last two games, part of an 8-3 run OVER the total. The Eagles are averaging 438.8 total yards and 28.8 points in their last four games but are banged up as wide receiver Nelson Agholor (ankle) and linebacker DeMeco Ryans (hamstring) are ailing and left tackle Jason Peters (back) says he is 50-50. They come off a win over an anemic Dallas offense, but just barely, 33-27. The offense had 459 yards while the defense allowed 411. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS on grass and 5-15-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are also 16-5 OVER the total against a team with a losing record. Take the points on Miami and also play the OVER.