Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Point Spread Picks

Cincinnati star QB Joe Burrow (toe surgery) is out three months, so backup Jake Browning (3 TDs, 5 INTs) has to start again. There is no balance on offense to help him out, with the Bengals last in the league in rushing (49 yards per game) and yards per carry (2.4). This is their third road game to start the season, getting crushed at Minnesota last week, 48-10. Denver's defense matches up well against the Cincinnati wide receivers, anchored by Defensive Player of the Year CB Pat Surtain II. QB Bo Nix is 3-0 after back-to-back losses, throwing eight TDs and no interceptions. The Broncos have won seven of their last eight at home.
The Jets rank 27th in total yards on offense per game, including 30th in passing yards. QBs Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields have been sacked nine times in three games, and the offense is 31st on third down (27.78%). Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa (5 TDs, 4 INTs) hasn't been sharp with the Dolphins averaging 18.7 points, 27th in scoring.

Combine the New York at Miami UNDER 44.5 (-104) and the Broncos (-399) into a 2-team parlay at +147 odds.

Miami is 8-8, needing to beat the Jets and get help from the Chiefs against Denver to make the playoffs. The Jets are out of it with a chance to stick it rival Miami in what could be Aaron Rodgers' last game. The Dolphins have failed to cover three of the last five and have struggled on the road most of the season. They're a road favorite in the finale but have averaged 15.8 points away from home. QB Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip injury and missed last week's game against Cleveland. New York's defense is fifth in the NFL in yards allowed. Rodgers threw for 339 yards in the Jets' 32-26 loss to the Dolphins in Miami last month. Back to the cold weather team playing at home with a chance to give the fans a happy send-off after a frustrating season. Play New York. 

New York continues to struggle after blowing another lead and losing 26-21 to Seattle, which outscored the Jets 10-0 in the second half last week. However, Miami isn't playing well enough to lay this many points as the Dolphins are only 5-7 ATS this season, and they come off a 30-17 loss to Green Bay that wasn't as close as the score indicated. Tua Tagovailoa finished 37 of 46 for 365 yards and two TDs, but it was mostly to catch up after falling behind early against the Packers, who totaled 388 yards of offense. Aaron Rodgers threw for 185 yards against the Seahawks, who only outgained the Jets by a yard. Miami has gone OVER four straight as a home favorite and is 4-0 OVER after allowing more than 250 yards passing its previous game. New York will keep this one close as it has the past two games against the Seahawks and the Colts. Take the Jets and the OVER.

The weather is going to be a serious influence on this game. The rain will be a factor, but a bigger factor will be the wind that is projected to be in the 20s sustained, and gusting up to 46 MPH. That is certainly going to influence how this game is played, and I think taking downfield threats away from Miami is going to make this into a running game with a tightly stacked box from both defenses. When the weather and wind influence a game as much as it looks like it will here, it is very difficult for a big favorite to get margin. I'm going with the NY Jets.