Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

Every NFL team could use a bye this late in the season. The Dolphins had their bye last week, but the timing could have been better. Miami was playing its best football, winning consecutive games for the first time this season, defeating the Commanders in Spain and knocking off the Bills at home. The Dolphins, though, rank 25th in both yards gained and yards allowed. Their lack of strong play in the trenches, along with their questionable team chemistry, makes them a fade here given this high point spread. Miami hasn't been favored by more than 2.5 points all season. Expect a focused effort from the Saints after their disappointing home loss as a favorite to the Falcons last week, 24-10. New Orleans rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has completed 68.1% of his passes in the previous three games, averaging a respectable 7.46 yards per attempt. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has regressed noticeably this season. He has been intercepted 13 times, tied for the most with Geno Smith. The Saints rank ninth in pass defense, allowing fewer than 193 yards per game, and 12th in fewest yards per game. Take the Saints.

New Orleans has won two in a row due to tremendous performances by its defense as the Saints beat the Jets 30-9, and then enjoyed a stunning 9-0 victory against Tom Brady and Tampa Bay last week. The Saints have moved up to #14 in total yards allowed per game, and #5 in rush defense while allowing 20.4 points per game. The Saints will have to rely on their defense tonight as they will start Ian Book at quarterback, a fourth-round rookie out of Notre Dame where he was 30-5. Miami has won six in a row, but only one was against a team with a winning record and New Orleans is always a tough place to play. The Saints will have RB Alvin Kamara ready and he has 1,016 rushing yards with eight touchdowns this season. The Dolphins are 2-8 their past 10 Monday games and 2-5 ATS overall as road favorites. The Saints are 7-3 their past 10 games after giving up fewer than 15 points their previous game and 35-16 ATS as underdogs. Take the Saints.

Miami has scored 70 points this preseason, third-best in the AFC, so they have little to prove in this meaningless road game. Any NFL team like Miami with a winning record in the preseason playing another winning team and the game goes 26-8 UNDER the total. The New Orleans offense also has little to prove, scoring 72 points this August - third-best in the NFC. Star Drew Brees won't play, and the backups are Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints come off a win at the Jets, allowing 13 points. Any NFL preseason team off a road win is 73-29 UNDER the total, including 51-19 UNDER when that team has a winning record in preseason like the Saints have. Take the UNDER.

It might be tempting to back this upstart Miami team that is 3-0, getting nearly a TD here. But hang on a sec. This team isn't without issues. For one, they haven't protected their quarterback very well as Ryan Tannehill has gone down an NFL-high 14 times through three games. One reason for that is that the Dolphins simply do not have a running game, generating just 3.2 yards per carry. That has left them in bad spots in terms of down and distance, and opponents are pinning their ears back and going after the quarterback. New Orleans was a horrific defense last season but they have made great strides this season, allowing less than 13 ppg through three contests. The Saints offense finally got untracked last week, putting up 31 points vs. Arizona. After that win, New Orleans is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 in this building. Drew Brees is lethal when facing a bad pass defense. Over the past three seasons, the Saints are 11-2 ATS vs. teams like Miami that allow 235+ passing yards per game. They are also 19-9 ATS over that span as a favorite including 14-3 ATS as home chalk. Lay the points with New Orleans here.