Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

New England can still claim the AFC's No. 1 seed with a win and a loss or tie by Denver. That will be enough motivation to pour it on the Dolphins, who historically are a bad cold-weather team, and the forecast calls for temperatures in the 20s. The Patriots are on a 10-3 ATS run, 6-1 ATS in division games. They are 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS following an ATS win. New England comes off a 42-10 victory over the Jets with Drake Maye enjoying a near-perfect performance, completing 19 of 21 for 256 yards and five TDs with no interceptions. The Patriots soared OVER for the fourth straight game and seventh in nine games. The first meeting this season also went OVER as the Pats won 33-27 in Week 2. New England has gone OVER five of six home games and seven of their past eight January games. Miami has gone OVER eight of nine versus the AFC East, and it is 4-0-2 OVER its past six road games. Take the Patriots and the OVER.

It's always easy to overreact after a bad season opener. Still, Miami was downright awful while losing 33-8 to the Colts, making it seem unlikely the Dolphins can make all the necessary adjustments in just one week. The Dolphins totaled just 43 yards in the first half, while Tua Tagovailoa threw for 114 yards, but also had two interceptions and lost a fumble. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its past five September games, 2-5 ATS in its past seven games overall. New England, at least, was competitive against Las Vegas before losing 20-13. Drake Maye was 30 of 46 for 287 yards in his first game under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Miami has gone OVER six straight home games and four of five overall against the AFC East. The Patriots have gone OVER six of their past eight and four in a row after totaling more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Miami did have a bright spot in De'Von Achane, who rushed for 75 yards and a TD on only 10 carries. The Dolphins will look to him more this week in an effort to put more points on the board, but it won't be enough if Tagovailoa continues his erratic play. Take the Patriots and the OVER.

New England has covered the spread three of four, including two outright wins against the New York Jets and Chicago, and the defense has been underrated. The Patriots have allowed only 18.3 points in their past four games, and rookie QB Drake Maye threw for 282 yards and two TDs against the Los Angeles Rams last week, when the Patriots narrowly lost 28-22. Six of the past nine meetings with Miami have stayed UNDER, and the Dolphins are 10-5 UNDER in their past games overall. The Dolphins have covered one of five home games this season and are 4-9 ATS their past 13 overall. Miami barely won the first meeting 15-10 on Oct. 6, and it went UNDER by 12 points, and the posted total for this game is nine points higher. New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson will take advantage of Miami's run defense, which is #23 in the NFL. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

These AFC East rivals have sputtering offenses. Miami has far more skill position talent on offense for backup QB Skylar Thompson. The defense is fifth in the NFL in yards allowed, 11th in yards rushing per attempt, and No. 1 on third down (23.81%). They're 3-1 UNDER the total, part of a 7-2 run UNDER. The Dolphins have won six of the last seven meetings against New England. The plodding Patriots' offense is last in yards and points (13 ppg) with QB Jacoby Brissett and RB Rhamondre Stevenson (4.1 yards per carry). They're last in passing and 24th on third down (32.76%). The defense is 24th in yards allowed, though seventh in yards rushing per attempt, on a 12-8 run UNDER the total. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home against the Dolphins. Play Miami + UNDER the total. 

New England finally broke through and got a win snapping a three-game skid when Mac Jones threw a 1-yard TD pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left to upset Buffalo 29-25. Jones threw for 272 yards and two TDs and Bill Belichick got his 300th win. Now the Patriots will be out to avenge a 24-17 loss to Miami on Sept. 17 and the Dolphins come off a 31-17 loss at Philadelphia while being outgained 355-244. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 216 yards and threw a costly interception near the goal line in the fourth quarter and returned 16 yards by Darius Slay and the game stayed UNDER. New England had gone UNDER five straight before Sunday's game and the Patriots are 26-10 UNDER their past 36 games playing on real grass. Miami has stayed UNDER 13 of 19 as a home favorite and eight of 11 at home overall. The Dolphins are 3-9-1 ATS their past 13 October games and New England's defense surprisingly is No. 9 in the league in total yards allowed. New England may have finally fixed its offensive woes and the anticipation of getting Belichick's 300th win is over. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.