Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

Miami enters this afternoon with a 0-3 record and has allowed 28.7 points per game, 28th in the league. Minnesota is 3-0 and scores 23.7 points per game, 16th, even though it ranks last in both total yards and passing yards. Minnesota’s 39-22 win over Green Bay produced 61 points, more than any game either team has played this season, while Miami’s own games have totaled 40, 48 and 34. A plus-four turnover margin, tied for second, supplies the short fields that make up the difference. Averaging what Minnesota scores with what Miami allows puts the Vikings near 26 points. Miami is the other half of the equation, scoring 12.0 a game and tied for 31st, against a Minnesota defense that allows 13.7, second-best, which puts the Dolphins near 13. Together, those two estimates land just above the posted total. Miami’s defense has not held an opponent under 24 points. Back the OVER.

Minnesota plays only its second true road game. The first didn't go well offensively in a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia. 34-year-old QB Kirk Cousins (7 TDs, 5 INTs) hasn't been as sharp as the last two seasons when he threw 35 and 33 TDs. They face a Miami offense that has all kinds of problems as QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is still out and backup Teddy Bridgewater also has a concussion after getting knocked out of Sunday's loss to the Jets. Rookie third-string QB Skylar Thompson will make his first NFL start. The Dolphins are 55-35 UNDER the total at home versus winning teams, plus 15-5 UNDER off an upset loss as a road favorite. Miami's defense has been great at home with a 20-7 win over New England and a 21-19 victory over Buffalo. Those games went UNDER the total by 19 and 15 points. In addition, NFL teams like the Dolphins off of an upset loss by 10+ points as a road favorite are 72-29 UNDER the total, while home teams like Miami off a loss by 21+ points to a division rival are 43-16 UNDER the total in the next game. Take Minnesota/Miami UNDER the total.

The defense has surrendered 89 points in three games, most in the NFL this August. They've been outscored by 28 points, second worst only to the Chargers. They opened preseason with two straight home contests, so this is their second straight road game. Miami has allowed 31 and 38 points the last two games, while the offense is trying to find consistency after losing projected starter Ryan Tannehill. QBs Jay Cutler, Brandon Doughty, Matt Moore and David Fales combines for three picks last week (five in preseason), while the ground attack has been useless, averaging 4.1, 2.7 and 2.4 yards per carry in three games. Minnesota plays hard for no-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer, even in August, on a 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS preseason run. The Vikings have a winning record this preseason, but Zimmer wasn't happy with their first half last week against the 49ers and is hinting that the starters will play more in Week 4. Sunday night, despite scoring 32 points, the first-team offense extended its streak of not reaching the end zone to a third preseason game. This team is still strong all-around, with significant upgrades on the offensive line, along with a rock solid defense. This is the second straight home game for the talented Vikings, so back the home team in a low scoring tilt. Play the Vikings and the UNDER.

Minnesota is still playing hard for their first-year, no-nonsense coach and playing better of late (3-0 ATS in their last three). They gave the first-place Lions all they could handle on the road last week in a 16-14 Detroit victory. Minnesota had the edge in yards 360-233 and held Detroit to 2-of-11 on third down. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS after a defeat and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. They are a big dog to a Miami squad that is at a low point, dropping to third in the division after going 1-3 SU/ATS the last four games. The defense has given up 39, 28 and 41 points in the losses, and the only win was 16-13 over the punchless New York Jets. And, the Vikings have feasted this year vs. struggling pass defenses going 8-2 ATS vs. teams allwoing 61%+ completions. Miami's offense has been below average all season at #20 in passing and #14 in rushing. The Dolphins have been outscored 69-26 in the last two weeks. Miami has forced only five turnovers in six games and recorded six sacks in the last five. Miami's last five opponents have converted 51.5% (35 of 68) of their third-down chances. The Dolphins are 15-35-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record and 0-5 ATS in December. Take the generous points the Minnesota Vikings.