Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Tampa Bay has been without WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and this week, QB Baker Mayfield has been limited in practice due to a bug spreading through the Bucs' locker room. Center Graham Barton, leading WR Emeka Egbuka (717 yards), offensive guard Dan Feeney, and offensive tackle Luke Goedeke have been sick. The offense has averaged 21.3 points in its last three road games, with Mayfield throwing for 228, 152, and 173 yards. The Buccaneers are 4-2 UNDER the total on the road. The Los Angeles defense has a dominant pass rush, ranks 13th in total yards allowed, fifth on third downs (34.59%), and second in points allowed (17.2 per game). They lead the NFL in pressures that force turnovers, and are on a 6-2 run UNDER the total at home. Take Tampa Bay/Los Angeles UNDER the total. 

Let's face it. Tom Brady may officially be over the hill. The Bucs are averaging just 18.3 points per game (14.3 per game over their last three). The Los Angeles defense is fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed and 11th at defending the pass. It's the offense that has been the problem during this 1-3 SU/ATS slide averaging 14.25 points. The offensive line has been hit by injuries and subpar play, in addition to losing All-Pro tackle Andrew Whitworth to retirement and guard Austin Corbett to free agency in the offseason. The Rams are the second-worst in rushing and yards per rush, while star WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) is not 100%. The Rams are 20-9 UNDER the total against losing teams, plus 19-7-1 UNDER versus teams with a losing home record. Tampa Bay has even less offensive balance, ranked last in rushing yards (61.9 yards per game) and yards per carry (3.0). The Bucs have a banged-up offensive line along with ailing wide receivers, including top target Mike Evans (ankle). Sean McVay is 25-12 ATS on the road vs. conference foes in LA. He's also 20-10 ATS on the road following a home loss. Tampa Bay is 50-30 UNDER the total after having lost five or six of their last seven. And an NFL team like the Bucs off of a home defeat is 39-10 UNDER the total when facing a team off of a home loss by 10 points or more. Take the Rams plus the points and also take the UNDER.

It will be perfect football weather Sunday in Tampa Bay (60 degrees), featuring a pair of super-talented quarterbacks. Los Angeles QB Matt Stafford (43 TDs, 17 INTs) and WR Cooper Kupp (1,947 yards) lead a dynamic Rams attack that ranked seventh in the NFL in total yards, eighth in points scored (27.1 per game), and sixth on third-down (44.04%). They face a pass-happy Tampa Bay offense, and the Los Angeles 'D' ranked No. 21 in pass defense (No. 15 on third down). The Rams are 10-2 OVER the total as an underdog and 7-3-1 OVER away from home. QB Tom Brady (45 TDs, 12 INTs) leads a Tampa Bay offense that is second in total yards and points (30.1 per game) and third on third-downs (46.19%). The Bucs averaged 37.1 points per game at home and are 15-5 OVER the total after a victory by 10+ points and are also 19-8 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. The OVER has cashed in the last five meetings between these teams, including a 34-24 Los Angeles win in Week 3 as Brady threw for 432 yards while Stafford had 343 yards, four TDs, and no picks. Back the OVER for a Max Play.

The big-name quarterbacks highlight this showdown, but don't overlook both powerhouse defenses that do everything well. Tampa Bay has been No. 1 against the run the last two years, and here they are No. 2 after two weeks this season. Last year, the defense was sixth in total yards allowed and eighth in points surrendered (22.2 per game). The Bucs are 7-3 UNDER the total against winning teams and 16-5 UNDER after two straight home victories. Tampa Bay had just 251 total yards when these teams met last season, a 27-24 Los Angeles win. The Rams' defense was No. 1 in total yards allowed and points surrendered (18.5 per game) last year, and this year they are currently #12 in yards allowed, eighth in points, and are on an 8-1 run UNDER the total at home. They're also 22-11 UNDER after playing their previous game on the road. Play UNDER the total.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers fixed all the problems they had while getting embarrassed by New Orleans the week before, and came out and beat Carolina 46-23. Brady threw three touchdown passes, ran for another and finished 28 of 39 for 341 yards. What's more, Tampa Bay racked up 210 rushing yards, including 192 by Ronald Jones, who had a 98-yard TD run. The Panthers were held to only 187 total offense yards as the Buccaneers' #3 ranked defense did its part in making adjustments after the loss to the Saints. Los Angeles comes off a 23-16 win over Seattle as Jared Goff passed for 302 yards, Malcolm Brown rushed for two touchdowns, and Darrell Henderson had another. The Rams have lost three of their last four road games with the only win coming against lowly Washington. The Bucs beat the Rams 55-40 in last year's meeting without Brady and Tampa Bay is 12-2-2 ATS its last 16 games in Week 11. Los Angeles is just 6-13-1 ATS its last 20 games as an underdog and 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 Monday games. Also, the Rams are 1-4-1 ATS following a win dating to last season. Play the Buccaneers as my MNF Max Play.