Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

For a 3-1 team, San Francisco has some ugly numbers. QBs Brock Purdy and Mac Jones have combined for eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while the ground game averages a measly 3.3 yards per carry. They have a close win over the worst team in the NFL, New Orleans, 26-21, and squeezed by Arizona (16-15). Some flaws were exposed on Sunday in a 26-21 home loss to Jacksonville, as the team turned the ball over four times. The 49ers are without two of their top three wide receivers in Ricky Pearsall (knee injury) and Jauan Jennings (rib injury) and now Brock Purdy has been officially ruled out. Los Angeles also has just one loss, a close one to defending champion Philadelphia, along with a 27-20 victory over the 3-1 Colts as QB Matthew Stafford (8 TDs, 2 INTs) threw for 375 yards. The offense has balance with RB Kyren Williams (303 yards, 4.5 ypc), anchoring a ground attack that averages 4.5 yards per carry. The defense ranks ninth in the NFL in yards allowed, 10th in points allowed, and sixth in third-down conversions (34%). The Rams are 2-0 at home, with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. While it's unclear if they are gonna cover this very large number, I like LA on the moneyline. I realize it's a steep price, but hey, who am I to sniff at a 24% ROI in one day, which is what a win at these odds will pay out? That compares very nicely to the 0.02% stock market average daily return. It's a 120x higher payout to be precise. Play Los Angeles on the moneyline. 

Los Angeles soared OVER by 36 points in its thrilling 44-42 win over Buffalo on Sunday for its third OVER in four games. The Rams have gone OVER six of seven as underdogs, and the past four meetings with the 49ers have sailed to the high side. Matthew Stafford threw for 320 yards and two TDs against the Bills, and Puka Nacua caught 12 passes for 162 yards for the Rams, who outgained the Bills 457-445. The defense tired late as the Bills outscored the Rams 21-6 in the fourth quarter and nearly pulled out the victory. Now that defense has to play on short rest and the Niners had their best offensive showing of the season while blowing out Chicago 38-13. San Francisco totaled 325 passing yards from Brock Purdy and 131 on the ground. George Kittle had six receptions for 151 yards. The 49ers have allowed 28.6 points per game their past three. Take the OVER.

A rivalry game and a difficult situational spot for San Francisco. The 49ers traveled to Minnesota Sunday, losing 23-17 as a favorite. The defense allowed 403 yards (146 rushing). The 49ers will be without two of their top pass-catchers in WR Deebo Samuel and star RB Christian McCaffrey to injuries. The defense has some key injuries, as well. Los Angeles plays its home opener after an embarrassing loss at Arizona. They are a big underdog at home despite having a terrific veteran QB in Matthew Stafford (533 yards, 69.7% completions). The Rams have won five of their last six home games and are on an 8-3 ATS run at home. Play Los Angeles.