Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

New Orleans is heading into this one without the group that usually makes me think twice about backing a total this small. Kellen Moore said plainly this week that his front-line players will not suit up this afternoon, with the joint practice sessions against the Rams standing in for those reps instead. Alvin Kamara is also out with a knee injury that is expected to sideline him for weeks, stripping the backfield of its most proven weapon. On the other side, Sean McVay has built a preseason habit of turning games like this over to his assistants and his depth chart, and Puka Nacua trending toward sitting again with a groin issue only reinforces that approach. What's left is Ty Simpson trying to build on a strong debut for the Rams against a Saints quarterback room still sorting out its pecking order, both groups working behind backup offensive lines that struggled to sustain drives in their openers. Neither side has the rhythm or the supporting cast to string together long possessions, and negative plays pile up fast when the trenches are this unsettled. The number here is built for two teams with their top units on the field. That's not what's showing up this afternoon. The UNDER anchors my card this afternoon.

There are plenty of reasons why the New Orleans Saints are 1-7 on the season. When a bettor looks at a game, they are more apt to look to go against New Orleans, and the odds makers realize that. This line has been pumped up. Then, a quick look to see that the Saints lost to Tampa Bay 23-3 last time on the field. More reasons to go against them. Here is the rest of the story. The 20-point loss the Saints suffered last time out was the first time they lost by more than 12 since September 21st. The Saints turned the ball over just three times in their first five games, but they have made eight turnovers in their last two games, which is not going to continue happening. The Rams have been a favorite of 14 points or more just four times since 2020. This isn't a familiar role for them, as they are 1-3 ATS in those four games. Make the play on New Orleans.

Los Angeles has lost two of three after getting blasted at home Sunday Night by the Eagles, 37-20. The defense is 26th in yards and points given up, 19th on third down (40.46%), and 28th against the run. The Rams are on a 4-7 ATS run. New Orleans still has some playoff hopes and is playing like it, winning two in a row. They beat Atlanta, 20-17, as an underdog and trounced Cleveland, 35-14. QB Derek Carr (13 TDs, 4 INTs) is back, throwing four TDs and no picks in the last two games, while the defense is sixth in the red zone and 15th on third down (36.36%). The Saints come off the bye week and play their third straight at home. Play New Orleans. 

New Orleans has kept its playoff hopes alive with two wins against Carolina and the New York Giants while allowing only 12 points in the two games. Derek Carr was 23 of 28 passing for 218 yards and three TDs without a turnover as the Saints beat the Giants 24-6 on Sunday. Alvin Kamara totaled 110 yards from scrimmage and the Saints sacked Tommy DeVito seven times while holding the Giants to just 193 yards of offense. The Saints are 17-4 ATS their past 21 games as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points. The teams met last year and the Saints won 27-20 as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles hung on to defeat Washington after jumping out to a 20-0 lead. Matthew Stafford threw for 258 yards and two TDs. New Orleans is #6 in the NFL allowing just 19.1 points per game. The Saints have scored nine touchdowns in 10 red-zone trips the past three games and Carr has found his rhythm with his new team. Take the Saints.

The Los Angeles Rams are defending Super Bowl champions, but the team is a mess right now with a 3-6 straight-up record and 2-6-1 ATS while dealing with major injuries. Matthew Stafford is questionable (concussion) and Cooper Kupp is on the injured list and will have ankle surgery. The Rams have lost three in a row, including 27-17 last week when backup QB John Wolford threw for 212 yards and a touchdown, but the Rams rushed for only 66 yards on 20 carries and they are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game as well as overall yardage. New Orleans has played well enough defensively its last three games, but it has to improve offensively after totaling just 186 yards of offense against the Steelers. Andy Dalton is expected to start again after he went 17-for-27 for 174 yards with two interceptions. Dalton has thrown for 1,559 yards, 11 TDs and seven picks this season. The Rams are 0-5-1 ATS their past six November games and 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 games following an ATS loss. New Orleans bounces back with a 10-3-1 ATS record after totaling fewer than 250 yards its previous game. Take the Saints as a Max Play.