Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks Point Spread Picks

Seattle hosts the Chargers today with 31 points at Arizona behind it, a 31-7 win I had two weeks ago laying the points, and 31 again last Sunday in a 33-31 loss at Washington. Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in that one, and Seattle's passing game is fifth in the league at 276.0 yards a game. Los Angeles allows 25.3 points a game, 20th, and it will have Derwin James and Donte Jackson, both questionable, in a secondary facing that attack. The Chargers' own offense is the reason to lean low: it scores 14.7 points a game, 29th, and put up 14, 14, and 16 in its three losses. But Seattle allowed 33 at Washington, so Los Angeles will not need much more than it has shown to push the total, and the Seahawks' offense can supply most of it alone. I'm on the OVER.

Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL and like his brother he likes to win in the preseason. Harbaugh had a 10-6 straight up and ATS record as coach of San Francisco from 2011-2014. Mike MacDonald has his first head coaching job after several years as a defensive assistant with Baltimore and one year with the Michigan Wolverines. Seattle had a history of preseason success under Pete Carroll, but we'll have to wait and see how MacDonald handles it. Harbaugh will want to make a good first impression in front of the home fans. The backups behind Justin Herbert are Easton Stick, Max Duggan and Casey Bauman. Stick started four games for Los Angeles in 2023 and completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 1,133 yards and three TDs and an interception. Duggan and Bauman have no NFL experience and Stick should get the majority of the snaps in this game and Herbert is recovering from a foot injury. Seattle has Sam Howell and P.J. Walker backing up Geno Smith. Howell has been inconsistent in training camp and Walker has started nine games in 21 NFL appearances the past four years. The Chargers averaged 24.7 points in the 2023 preseason and two of three went OVER. Harbaugh will look to put up some points to excite the home crowd in his first game back. Take the Chargers and the OVER.

Seattle's defense is far ahead of the offense. The offensive line has been shaky, WR Doug Baldwin is retired and rookie WR D.K. Metcalf is having knee surgery this week. The QB rotation after Russell Wilson is poor with Paxton Lynch, Geno Smith and J.T. Barrett. They are 11-of-28 on third down. The Chargers have their own offensive problems with running back Melvin Gordon still holding out over his contract. The offense has scored 30 points in two games with QBs Cardale Jones, Easton Stick and Tyrod Taylor combining for one TD, three picks. In their last five preseason home games, the Chargers have averaged 14.4 points per game. Last year in preseason, these teams played a 24-14 game with 20 penalties and this shapes up as a defensive duel. Back the UNDER.