Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

Mike Vrabel has done an astonishing job in his first year as coach of New England with a 14-3 record and 12-5 ATS, including winning and covering the final three games of the regular season by an average score of 108-44. The Patriots have soared OVER five games in a row, and they are 4-0 OVER following a win by at least 14 points. New England has gone OVER eight of its past nine January games and six of its past seven at home. History is on the side of the Patriots, who are 12-3 at home against the Chargers, who have to travel 2,600 miles to play in less-than-ideal conditions. The Patriots have won eight of nine against AFC teams. They are 5-0 OVER after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Drake Maye appears to be on his way to being an elite quarterback with 4,394 passing yards, 31 TDs, and just eight interceptions this season. The Chargers come into the game on a two-game losing streak, although Justin Herbert was rested against Denver last week. Take the Patriots on the moneyline and the OVER. 

It is a long road trip from Los Angeles, 3,000 miles to the East Coast. They've lost three out of five, including a 19-17 loss in Kansas City in their last road contest. They also go from playing in 70-degree weather to low 40s. The defense has allowed 67 points in the previous two games, including a 40-17 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a favorite. New England won't make the playoffs but is showing plenty of fight. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye (14 TDs, 10 INTs) keeps getting better, throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo, a 24-21 loss as a +14 dog. Over the last eight games, the Patriots are 5-3 ATS. They have losses by three, six, one, and three points, along with upset victories over the Jets and Bears as underdogs of +7 and +6.5. Play New England.

New England has a team it actually has a chance of beating this week as the Los Angeles Chargers have lost three consecutive games and are essentially out of the playoff race. The Chargers are 2-5-1 ATS their past eight games and coach Brandon Staley is on the hot seat and doesn't have seven Super Bowl winners that Bill Belichick has to back him up. Justin Herbert has been plagued by dropped passes by his receivers and the team overall has underacheived in almost every department. The Chargers have lost 12 of 13 meetings at New England, including the past five and Herbert is 0-2 against Belichick's defenses with two TDs and four interceptions. The Patriots defense is able to keep their team in the game and opponents have scored only 13.3 points on average their past three games. New England is 42-19 ATS after allowing fewer than 250 total yards its previous game and the Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS against the AFC. Take the Patriots as a Max Play.

Los Angeles was embarrassed, 34-6, at Baltimore, which was a tough spot in the schedule after the Chargers had an exhausting, 47-42, win against Cleveland, and then they had to play three time zones away the following week. The good news for the Chargers is they have had two weeks to regroup following a bye week and are looking to improve on their 4-2 record both straight up and ATS. Justin Herbert did not have one of his best days against the Ravens, completing 22 of 39 for 195 yards, but on the season he has 14 touchdown passes with 4 interceptions and a 65.4% completion rate. The posted total is higher than it should be as it reflects the Patriots' 54-13 rout of the Jets last week. New England had averaged just 20.8 points its previous six games while the Chargers are 5-1 UNDER this season, and New England is 7-1 UNDER its past eight games following a win (5-1 UNDER its last six road games). The Patriots are 1-9-1 ATS after a win and 2-5 ATS their last seven road games. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS its last 10 games overall. Play the Chargers and the UNDER.

New England did pull out a win against Arizona when Nick Folk kicked a 50-yard field goal as time expired, but Cam Newton still struggled, completing only 9 of 18 for 84 yards with two interceptions, and the Patriots finished with only 179 total yards of offense. New England is #20 in the NFL in yards gained per game and #27 in scoring with 20.8 points per game. The Pats are 1-7-1 ATS their last nine games following a win and 0-6-1 ATS after an ATS win. This is the first meeting since the Chargers lost 41-28 to the Patriots in the 2018 playoffs. Los Angeles has lost several close games this season, and it comes off a 27-17 defeat at Buffalo last week. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished 32 of 51 for 316 yards to bring his season total to 3,016 yards, and he and Pat Mahomes are the only players to top 3,000 yards in their first 10 career starts. The rookie hasn't had much to show for it as far as the win column, but that is due to change as he has been much more effective than Newton. New England has covered just one of its last five road games and it is 2-6-1 ATS its last nine December games. Play the Chargers.