Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

The Miami Dolphins have averaged just shy of 25 points per game over the last four weeks and only have one win to show for it. They are now 1-4, and that will not improve unless the defense makes a total transformation. The Dolphins have allowed 29 points per game through their first five, and it is tough to win in this league if you can't get consistent stops. After opening the season 3-0, the Chargers have dropped two straight games. The Chargers have had ball security issues over the last three weeks, turning the ball over 6 times. The Chargers have done a very good job taking out bad teams. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs a team with a .250 or worse record. Miami has shown little resistance playing as a dog, as they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

Miami has a talented all-around roster with an offense led by QB Tua Tagovailoa and dynamic playmaker Tyreek Hill. The defense was fourth against the run last season and the secondary adds six-time Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins are 46-22 ATS versus the AFC West. Los Angeles didn't do much in the offseason and comes off that playoff collapse to Jacksonville. The offense is one-dimensional, all-passing, as the ground game ranked 29th in yards and 30th in yards per rush (3.7), while the defense was 21st in points allowed and 27th in rush yards surrendered (145.8 per game). Play Miami. 

Miami takes a long road trip to the West Coast. The Dolphins have won all their home games except one, but are 3-3 on the road. The last two times the Dolphins were favored on the road they squeezed by at Detroit (31-27) and at Chicago (35-32), two teams with combined records of 8-17. This is the second of a three-game road trip as they come off of a loss at San Francisco, 33-17. The Dolphins are 66-91 ATS after getting 75 or fewer rushing yards in the last game. Miami's pass defense is 20th in the NFL and they face a pass-happy Los Angeles attack behind QB Justin Herbert (20 TDs, 7 INTs) that is sixth in the NFL in passing. Los Angeles is home after playing four of the last five on the road. And NFL favorites like Miami that force one or fewer turnovers per contest are 10-35 ATS after a game where they had a turnover margin of minus 3 or worse. Play Los Angeles.

Miami is getting a ton of points as expected, but this is too many for a team at home against another team that is 1-2 straight-up and 0-2-1 ATS. Melvin Gordon is reportedly ready to end his holdout with the Chargers, but his absence hasn't been a big problen as Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have combined for 302 rushing yards in the first three games. Keenan Allen caught 13 passes for a career-high 183 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. The Dolphins kept it close for a half against Dallas, but then the Cowboys got a front door cover with a fourth-quarter touchdown to win 31-6. Josh Rosen went 18-of-39 for 200 yards with no TDs or interceptions and he's expected to start this week despite a minor hand injury. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS the last four meetings at Miami and 1-8-2 ATS their last 11 September games. Also, the Chargers have gone OVER in five of their last seven September games and they are 18-5 OVER their last 23 Week 4 games. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 44.3 points and that is near the posted total for this game. Grab the big points with the Dolphins as a Max Play and go with the OVER.