Las Vegas Raiders vs Seattle Seahawks

Lady Luck hasn't been with Las Vegas in 2022. This snakebitten team got the monkey off their backs in a 22-16 win at Denver last week, but the road gets tougher at Seattle. Las Vegas has lost five of its six road games saddled by a weak defense that is 23rd in points surrendered (24.2 pg) and against the pass, 26th in yards allowed, and 29th on third down (46.4%). The Raiders are 28-52 ATS off a win as an underdog, including 12-25 ATS of a victory over a division rival as a dog. While Las Vegas is minus-17 in point differential, Seattle is +63, the fifth-best differential in the NFL. Seattle comes off a bye week and coach Pete Caroll has done a remarkable job with QB Geno Smith (17 TDs, 4 INTs). The Seahawks had their 4-0 SU/ATS run end in a 21-16 loss to Tampa Bay in their last game, but they're on a 63-42 spread run at home, plus are 45-24 ATS after a defeat. Play Seattle.

Pete Carroll is one of the best preseason coaches in history with a 35-22 straight-up record (37-19-1 ATS). Seattle comes off a 12-4 season, but they lost to the Rams in the postseason with Los Angeles starting a backup quarterback. That should be motivation enough for Carroll to get that taste out of his mouth and continue winning in the preseason. Plus, Russell Wilson appeared to be unhappy in the offseason and would probably have approved a trade, but now he is ready to get the Seahawks back in the playoffs and advance past the divisional round for the first time since 2014. Geno Smith, Danny Etling, and Alex McGough are the backup QBs with Smith the most experienced having played seven seasons, but only a total of 11 games the last five years. Etling and McGough haven't played in a regular-season game. Las Vegas coach Jon Gruden has stayed UNDER in 29 of his past 50 preseason games, including a 17-15 loss to the Seahawks in 2019. Derek Carr comes off an above-average season, at best, for the Raiders, and his backups are Marcus Mariota and Nathan Peterman. Mariota should get plenty of snaps as the Raiders reportedly want to get him in games to force defenses to prepare for him and also for some red-zone opportunities. Peterman has played in nine games in his NFL career. Seattle gave up a league-low 16 points its last eight games in 2020, and the defense will be one of the best in the league again. Play the Seahawks and the UNDER.

Seattle has a losing record because the Legion of Boom is long gone, ranked #14 in points allowed (22.8 points per game). The run defense has been bad, surrendering 129 yards rushing per game, ranking #29. This is the fourth road game in six weeks for the Seahawks, off a 33-31 home loss to the Rams. Coach Pete Carroll is 26-9 OVER the total in non-conference games as coach of Seattle. This is the second home game in the last three weeks for Oakland, which included a 45-42 home win over the Browns. Oakland has been a decent bounce-back team at 5-2-2 ATS when following a straight-up loss. The Raiders have plenty of offensive punch at sixth in the NFL in total yards and passing yards per contest. Oakland is 16-7-1 OVER the total after getting fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. When these teams clash the OVER is 13-5, Seattle is 3-9 ATS, and the home team is 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings. In addition, the OVER is 36-14 when an NFL team like the Raiders allowed 400+ total yards in their previous game against an opponent that allowed 450+ yards in their previous game. Play Oakland and the OVER.