Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Football Team Point Spread Picks

Well I think we all knew it, but the once undefeated Kansas City Chiefs have been exposed. The Chiefs had not allowed any team to score more than 17 points while going 9-0, but have allowed 103 in their last three games at 34.3 points per game. The problem for Washington here is that they can't stop anyone, and the Chiefs offense is great on the ground and solid through the air. Washington has allowed 24 points or more to every team on their schedule but one. Kansas City is average from the line of scrimmage. That will work against them in this one as the one thing the Skins have done is run the ball well most of the season. They should be able to do so again at home vs. a Chiefs team that must still be in shock. Dating back to his days in Denver, Mike Shanahan-coached teams are 33-14 OVER in home games with a total in this range (42.5 to 45). Since Shanahan's arrival here in the nation's capital, the Skins are a perfect 7-0 OVER at home in non-conference games. I think both teams have a big offensive day here. Take the OVER.

The Redskins offense has really struggled this season as we know. They have managed just 14.6 points per game through five games. But, it isn't something that has started this season. In their final eight games last year, the Skins managed to top the 20-point mark just once. So this is certainly not just a short-term fluke. In their last 13 games they topped the 20 point mark just one time! That is despite the fact they have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, having faced four teams with a combined record of 2-17! I was on them last week in a spot that proved to be fruitful (getting points against a bad Carolina team). But they are laying points in this one. It is very appealing to look at the other side of this one with a team getting just about a full TD facing a team that can't score, even against the easiest schedule in the league. This will be the Skins sixth straight game facing a team without a win coming into the game. The only two wins among that 2-17 mark of four of their opponents came to Washington, so these teams otherwise are 0-17 against the rest of the league! Despite playing these winless teams, Washington has posted a 1-4 ATS mark. The Redskins are now just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games posted as a favorite. They are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. The Chiefs came so close last week, finally losing in OT to a team that was supposed to blow them out. The Chiefs have only faced one team with a losing record all season and that resulted in a game decided by a FG. When a new coach takes over a team as Todd Haley has done in Kansas City, it takes a few games to work out the kinks and get on board. The Chiefs showed last week that they are on the cusp of really improving. The Chiefs, as bad as they have been over the past three seasons, are 8-0 ATS over that span after back-to-back games allowing 25+ points. The Skins can't score, and laying this big of a number presents a lot of value on the other side.

Washington showed they can play cross-conference opponents in a hostile environment tough on the road last week. We backed them as they covered the 7 point number against Denver and I love them again here as a big road underdog. Mark Brunell is playing... well... very good. He's giving their offense a bit of a boost. And, combined with their top 5 defense, this team has a shot every week. Their four games have been decided by a TOTAL of 8 points. Yet, they get six here. Things aren't rosy in KC. After an opening day blowout win over the Jets that now looks less impressive than it did at the time, they beat Oakland (big deal) and lost to Denver by 20 and Philadelphia by 6. Their vaunted offense is nowhere near where it has been in years past. The rushing game is humming but Trent Green and Tony Gonzales have gone cold. Green hasn't thrown for 250 yards yet. The Chiefs defense is ranked 30th in the league. The Skins under Gibbs are strong as road dogs. They are 10-2 as a road dog of less than 7 since 2003. Washington was a 2-point conversion away from tying the game last week and possibly winning against a very good team on the road. They enter this game with confidence from their recent play and faith in their coach and quarterback. They keep this one close. Three stars on the Skins.