Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

Kansas City lost star QB Patrick Mahomes, so Gardner Minshew (0 TDs, 1 pick) steps in. The defense is eighth in the NFL in yards allowed and fifth in points given up (19.1 per game). The Chiefs are on a 10-3 run UNDER the total. Tennessee is averaging 16 points in seven home games behind QB Cam Ward (11 TDs, 7 INTs). He has been sacked 49 times. In their last home game, they lost 25-3 to Jacksonville, mustering just 188 total yards. Take Kansas City/Tennessee UNDER the total. 

The Tennessee Titans have started the season 5-2. Ryan Tannehill is still questionable and the line here indicates the odds-makers don't expect him to play. That would mean a heavy dose of Derrick Henry as we saw last game where the Titans ran the ball 45 times for 314 yards while putting the ball in the air just 10 times. They should have some success vs a mediocre Kansas City run-stop unit, and it will also help them limit possessions in the game by burning the clock. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 vs Tennessee in his career with the Chiefs averaging just 23ppg. Henry has averaged 111 yards a game in 3 contests vs Kansas City and has generated 5.4 yards per carry, and I expect him to carry the ball more than the 20 times per game he had in those games. The last 4 times a pair of 5-2 teams have met the home favorite is 0-4 ATS, and in all games the average scoring margin for the home favorite has been just 3.8ppg and going back to the 1993 season no home favorite has ever won by 13 points or more in the battle of 5-2 teams. Make the play on Tennessee.

Kansas City played its best all-around game of the season by defeating Washington, 31-13, as Pat Mahomes compensated for two interceptions by throwing for 397 yards and engineering three touchdown drives in the second half. Washington was held to 276 yards of offense, and the Chiefs held an opponent under 29 points for the first time this season. Tennessee has a short week to recover from a wild Monday night battle against Buffalo as the Titans finally prevailed, 34-31. Derrick Henry scored 3 TDs and rushed for 143 yards, his fifth straight game with at least 100 yards on the ground. The last time these teams met was in the AFC Championship Game two years ago, and the Chiefs won 35-24 to advance to the Super Bowl. The road team is 8-3 ATS the past 11 meetings, and the Titans are 2-12 ATS their past 14 games on Sundays after playing on Monday night. Kansas City is #2 in the league in total yards gained per game and in passing yards while Tennessee is #24 in yards allowed and #24 in pass defense. Play the Chiefs.

Offense is going to take center stage in this one. Tennessee is on a 9-3 run OVER the total behind unstoppable power RB Derrick Henry. The threat of Henry running the football makes the play-action passes of QB Ryan Tannehill (22 TDs, 6 INTs) that much more effective. Tennessee is 102-75 OVER the total after playing their last game on the road. They will be able to score on a retooled Kansas City defense that finished #17 in yards allowed, and #25 against the run. But this Kansas City offense is unstoppable behind QB Patrick Mahomes (31 TDs, 5 INTs), TE Travis Kelce (1,229 yards) and WRs Tyreek Hill (860 yards) and Sammy Watkins (673). Down 24-0 at home last week, they ripped off 41 straight points in a 51-31 comeback victory over Houston. The Chiefs are 10-2 OVER the total against teams that average 4.5 yards per rush in the second half of the season. NFL teams that commit 1.25 turnovers or fewer when facing each other are 72-44 OVER the total when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and this shapes up as an offensive show. Play this game to finish OVER.

The Tennessee Titans seemed to have given up on Marcus Mariota and have decided to go with Ryan Tannehill. It hasn't done enough for the Titans offense which is one of six NFL teams that have not scored 30+ points since Week 2. The problem is that the running game, which looked solid coming into the season, has gained 3.9 yards per carry to a schedule of opponents allowing 4.4. The defense has kept them in games as they have allowed 20 points or fewer to seven of nine opponents. The Kansas City offense has lacked the same explosiveness they did last year, and early this season with or without Mahomes. The Chiefs have averaged 23.6 points per game over their last five. The Chiefs' defense has improved and is now above average from the line of scrimmage. Both of these teams have been in need of their defenses to step up and they have, while the offenses just don't look right. Play this game to finish UNDER for a Max Play.