Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

In this game we get “treated” to yet another Super Bowl with the Chiefs 🙄. We also get a rematch of this game two years ago when these two teams met in Glendale, Arizona. Interestingly enough, the script has flipped. In 2023, the Eagles were 1.5-point favorites. In this game, the Chiefs are 1 to 1.5 point favorites. In Super Bowl LVII, Kansas City won in a shootout 38-35. What will happen here?

Let’s get this out of the way: On paper, Philadelphia looks like the better team and as such there’s an argument that they should be favored in this game. Coming into this game, the Eagles outscored opponents by double-digits (10.5 points per game) and they come in with the league’s top scoring defense. On paper, Kansas City is good - not great. They won their games on average by just 3.7 points per game and while their defense is very good, their offense this year was middling, statistically. My computer pick for this game has the Eagles beating the Chiefs by a a couple of points, which seems about right at first glance from the available stats.

But, this game won’t be played on paper. There’s a reason that the Chiefs are here. Excluding the 0-38 lay-down to Denver in week 17, Kansas City lost just one game and that came in Buffalo. This team finds ways to win, which is why they are back in this game and instilled as a small favorite. Is it Patrick Mahomes? Is it Andy Reid? Is it the refs? Does it matter?

When Kansas City has the ball 🏈

This is the second straight year where KC comes into this game without a stellar offense. Prior to last year, the Chief’s offense was unstoppable. From 2018 when Mahomes took over, KC had produced a top-6 offense every single year through the 2022-23 season, average at least 28.5 points per game every year. But last year things changed. They entered Super Bowl LVIII ranked 15th in the league in scoring, averaging just 22.1 points per game. That was a massive drop off. How did it turn out for Kansas City? Another ring. This year, the Chiefs offense is slightly better, but still closer to middling than elite. For purposes of statistical analysis, I am going to remove the 38-0 loss that KC suffered to Denver in the final regular season game. With that out of the picture, Kansas City put up 24.4 points per game this season including the playoffs - good for a Top 10 ranking. Their offense improved slightly later into the year, averaging 27.8 per game from week 15 on and 27.5 in the playoffs. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, this team has the capability of putting up a lot of points in any game. They scored 26 or more in 10 games this season including 32 last week in Buffalo. Philly brings in the number one scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 points per game. They allowed 23 or less 17 times but they did give up 29 to Green Bay, 33 to Tampa Bay and 36 to Washington. When facing stellar defenses this year, the Chiefs averaged just 17.3 points per game. When facing offenses the caliber of Kansas City’s this season, Philly allowed just 22 per game. Based on the stats, it would appear that Kansas City will score around 20 points.

When Philadelphia has the ball 🏈

Can the Chiefs slow down Saquon Barkley? Barkley can’t be completely stopped and he will get his. But, KC was a top-10 defense this season in opponents yards per rush, allowing 4.2 per carry. Steve Spagnuolo is going to dial up the blitzes against Hurts, and for good reason. Since Spagnuolo took over this defense in 2019, KC ranks 2nd best in the league in expected points allowed per play when they blitz. Over that same span, the Chiefs ranked best in the league in creating unblocked pressure. And, that type of pressure is kryptonite to Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia averaged just 1.1 yards per drop back when facing unblocked pressure this season (bottom 5 in the league). Hurts has a 12% sack rate against the blitz which is really bad. Philadelphia averaged 28.4 points per game this season and their offense improved as the season went on. From week 14 on, this team averaged 32.3 per game and they averaged 35 per game in the playoffs. Note that figure is skewed heavily by the 55 put up in the Conference Championship game vs. Washington. But no doubt this team can score. Their biggest struggles came early in the season vs. mediocre competition, but they also struggled late in the season a few times, scoring just 20 vs. the Giants and 22 vs. Green Bay in the Wild Card game. This team is prone to inconsistency on offense. If we include the Denver week 16 game, Kansas City’s defense looks good but not great, allowing 19.4 points per game. Buffalo was able to put up 30 and 29 against them. But, if we remove the misleading Denver game, Kansas City allowed 18.4 points per game which is excellent - nearly as good as Philadelphia’s figure. Since week 13, the Chiefs have allowed just 15.8 points per game - good enough to make a claim to the NFL’s top defense. Not that we can ignore the Buffalo games, but realistically Josh Allen is one of the top QBs in the league, if not the top. In the regular season, Allen was tops in ESPN’s QBR, compared to 10th for Jalen Hurts. In the postseason, Allen was 4th and Hurts 8th. Pro Football News and Analysis ranks Allen as the 3rd best QB this season and Hurts 15th. So there’s an argument to say that Philadelphia would be expected to score less than Buffalo did against this KC defense. For sake of argument, if we remove the Buffalo games, KC averaged 17.0 points per game allowed this season. When KC faced the league’s best QBs (Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, Daniels), the Chiefs allowed 21.8 points per game. When they faced middling QBs (Darnold, Stroud, Wilson, Hurts, Goff, Nix, Rodgers), KC allowed an average of 14.25 points per game. Based on the numbers, it looks likely for Philly to score in the low 20s.

It’s been over a decade and a half since we have had a Super Bowl matchup between two uneven teams and this year is no exception. Either team can win this game. An argument can be made for both teams.

But I see an edge here and it’s with the Chiefs. Again, at first glance it looks like Philadelphia is the stronger team on both sides of the ball. But this really isn’t the case. Once we dive into KC’s defensive stats and take opponents into account, I actually like their defense in this game more. And, while Philly’s offense looks better on paper, Patrick Mahomes is the superior quarterback, by far. The stats tell us that, and his winning ways tell us that. Sure, the Eagles have Saquon Barkley but running backs don’t win Super Bowls in this NFL. 

Philadelphia was spared playing great defenses and are thus untested going against a great defense. The Eagles only played four teams with scoring defenses in the top half of the league. They put up 28 and 37 against the Rams (ranked #15), 24 vs. Baltimore (#8) and 27 against Pittsburgh (#7) and 34 and 22 against the best defense they played (Green Bay which was ranked #6).

Granted, there’s nothing overwhelming from a statistical standpoint to convince us that Kansas City will win. But, lest we not forget the intangibles. And they are huge. 

Two years ago, Philadelphia was the “better” team. The Eagles came into that Super Bowl with a 7-0 record vs. playoff teams and a 16-1 record with Jalen Hurts under center, but they lost in this game to Kansas City. Why? Because the combination of a Hall of Fame quarterback and Hall of Fame coach, along with a great defense, is nearly impossible to beat. We saw what Belichick and Brady did for years. And we have seen it with Reid and Mahomes.

First let’s look at Mahomes. Despite not putting up the numbers he did early in his career, he is a top 10 quarterback statistically, and unmatched in terms of winning. Since Mahomes took over, the Chiefs are 98-22 in games when not an underdog of more than 2 points. And, in one-score games, no QB is better. Since entering the league in 2018, Mahomes’ Chiefs are tops in the league in win percentage for one-score games (winning 73%).

Now, what about Andy Reid? Two seasons ago, Reid’s play calling was absolutely brilliant.

And where would you expect coaching brilliance to matter the most? In expected close games. As head coach of the Chiefs, Andy Reid is now 42-18-2 ATS in games with a spread of -3 to +3. And he’s 34-7 straight-up when he has 10+ days to prepare for a game including 33-3 when he’s not facing a team at .875 or worse. He is the difference.

Finally, while I hate to bring it up, there’s a potential that the league wants the Chiefs to win. I won’t go into the details of why this would be, or how we have seen some evidence of it, but I do believe all things being equal, there’s a chance the Chiefs will get one or two calls more going in their favor. In an expected close game, that could be the difference.

As of this writing, you can find the Chiefs -1.5 with reduced juice and -1 at -110 odds in several places. Bovada and Ceasars have them at -1 (-105). But I'm backing them on the moneyline here at -114 as we gain a point in the line for less than a dime of juice - a plus-EV tradeoff. Take KC to win this game. 

Take the UNDER in the first quarter as well. Play calling in Super Bowls tends to be very conservative to start compared to other games. Both teams want desperately to avoid losing the game in the first quarter. Players are on edge and nerves are high. Only three Super Bowls out of the last 20 have seen more than 10 points scored in the first quarter. And this game features two of the top scoring defenses in the league. The total for the first quarter is set at 9.5 but I recommend shopping for an alternate line as landing on 10 is not uncommon. I recommend you find an alternate or prop line of 10.5 (worth the heavy juice) or buy the 9.5 up to 10. 

What a great matchup! This does seem like a bit of a toss-up game so I'm not going to try to predict the winner. But we can still make a (big) bet. Kansas City has gone UNDER five consecutive games by an average of 10.9 points while allowing only 16.6 points per game. Philadelphia has stayed UNDER four of its past seven games and the Eagles are 6-2 UNDER on Monday night. The Eagles are 17-8 UNDER coming off a bye week and 5-1 UNDER overall as underdogs of up to 3 points. The Chiefs are 5-1 UNDER their past six Monday games and 14-6 UNDER overall as home favorites of up to 3.0 points. Also, Kansas City is 14-3-1 UNDER following a bye week and 13-3 UNDER its past 16 home games. The Chiefs are No. 2 in the NFL in defensive scoring, allowing 15.9 points per game on the season and the Eagles allow just 21.7. The Chiefs are 59-38 UNDER overall under Andy Reid in home games. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts will play, but is still dealing with a left knee injury, limiting what he can do a bit. Take the UNDER as a Max Play. 

Although this game features the #1 seed from each conference, one was expected to be here and the other is a bit of a surprise. Despite being a betting favorite all season long, the Chiefs are a slight underdog here to a Philadelphia team that started the season with 25-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. For perspective, the Colts, Broncos, and Rams all had better odds in the preseason.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog. The oddsmakers instilled him and the Chiefs as the opening favorite but the market disagreed and the line quickly moved. Will he remain an underdog at game time? If so it will break the Chiefs' 15-game streak as a playoff favorite. 

Speaking of Mahomes, as good as he’s been, he’s just 48-43-2 ATS in his career. His counterpart, Jalen Hurts, is 19-17-1 ATS. Hurts is 21-4 when favored, putting him in elite status in that category. Of the Eagles' three losses this season, only one came with Hurts playing. 

The Chiefs enter this game at 16-3 but they are just 7-11-1 ATS, underperforming expectations. If they win this game, they will be the first team in 57 years to win the Super Bowl with an ATS record under 40%. 

Andy Reid obviously has more experience than Nick Sirianni. But does it matter? Super Bowl matchups with the more experienced coach are 18-17 straight-up and 16-19 ATS. If the experience is 2-plus years, as it is here, it actually gets worse: 10-14 SU and 8-15-1 ATS. 

Okay, on to the game analysis…

While it takes a herculean effort, analyzing this game is my favorite thing I do all year. I feel the pressure to perform, given my main game pick is now 14-1 in the past 15 years. The lone pick I missed was the Seahawks over the Patriots when Seattle failed to hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch on the goal line at the end of the game. Oh well, can’t win ‘em all. But I’m gonna try to keep winning. 

My computer prediction has a very competitive game, with the Eagles winning by a point.

Statistically, these teams are very similar offensively. They both average 28.7 points per game entering this contest (playoffs included), tied for tops in the league. Philly is more efficient, scoring those points on 384 yards per game vs. 408 per game for Kansas City. 

Defensively, Philadelphia has the edge on full-season numbers, but recently the Chiefs have stepped up their game. Both are playing very well coming into this contest.

Including playoffs, Kansas City won their games this year by an average score of 28.7 to 21.5 while Philadelphia won by an average score of 28.7 to 18.8.

In the end, on paper, neither team stands out as an obvious choice, which is why we see a spread close to pick’em. To find an edge, we need to dig deeper. And deeper we shall go...  

When Kansas City has the ball

There’s not a lot I can say about Mahomes that hasn't already been said. With Tom Brady finally retired and walking into a $375M deal at Fox Sports, Mahomes will get more and more attention, and based on his early production in a young career, he has a chance to one day steal the GOAT horns. Of course, there’s a ton of football to be played before that would ever transpire but a second Super Bowl title would go a long way toward that. Mahomes posted a 105.5 passer rating this year, tied for second-best in the league. He’s magic and hard to stop. The KC offense has slowed ever so slightly as the season has progressed, averaging 27.3 points per game over the second half and 25 in the playoffs. Philadelphia’s defense was top 5 this season with only the Niners, Jets, and Ravens holding teams off the scoreboard more. So they have the qualifications to possibly slow down Mahomes. The Eagles allowed 18.8 points per game on the season, 19.4 per game in the second half, and just 7 per game in their two playoff wins. When facing defenses similar to Philly’s, the Chiefs scored around 29 points per game this season. When facing offenses similar to Kansas City’s, Philly gave up around 26 per game. The key to beating Kansas City is to contain Patrick Mahomes. This is no easy task. But, the Eagles were #1 in the league this year at defensive passer rating, holding opponents to a stingy 80.1 rating on average. That’s compared to a #23 ranking for KC’s defense. So it’s reasonable to see Kansas City score somewhere in the mid-to-high 20s.

When Philadelphia has the ball

The Eagles played two games without Jalen Hurts this season, averaging 22 points in those games. In the other 17 games, Philly put up over 30 points per game, giving them a slight edge over the Chiefs. I wouldn’t necessarily call them the better offense, but just automatically handing that title to Mahomes and the Chiefs I think is a mistake. Hurts is big and strong, and the main reason Sirianni is willing to go for it on 4th down, converting 22 of 32 attempts (69%) this season. The Eagles have the NFL’s top offensive line and arguably the best rushing attack, and the best receiving corp in this game. Philadelphia’s offense has improved throughout the year as well, averaging 31.4 points per game in the second half of the season. Remove the two games that Hurts didn’t play and that jumps to 35.9 per game. In two playoff games, they scored 69 points. Kansas City’s defense this season on average was middling, ranked 15th in the league in points allowed at 21.5 per contest. If I hadn’t seen improvement I’d say this is a huge cause for concern. But they have gotten better as the season has progressed. The Chiefs allowed 23.3 per game through the first 10 games, but have cut that to 19.6 per game over the past nine including an average of 20 in the playoffs. So instead of playing like a 15th-ranked defense, they are playing more like one ranked around 7th. But, a big cause for concern is that this team allowed 65.5% completions on the season and 67.1% in road games. That’s bad. When facing great offenses like Philadelphia’s this season, KC allowed 24 points per game. When facing mediocre defenses like Kansas City’s this season, Philly put up 34.7 points per game. So, with Hurts in the game, it seems as if Philadelphia should be able to reach the high 20s in this game.  

So what is going to happen? 

Either team can definitely win this game and on paper, cases can be made for both. But I do think the stronger case goes to the Eagles. From a Pythagorean win perspective, which predicts records based on points scored and allowed, the Eagles are a 14-win team while KC is a 12.5-win team. This disparity holds for recent performance as well as season-long. Philadelphia’s offense is slightly better, despite not having the best quarterback on the field. And, the Eagles bring a Super Bowl-caliber defense to the equation, which KC does not.

I am reticent to go all in on the Eagles given that Kansas City’s defense has been improving, they have a HOF quarterback and coach, and the fact that Reid's record with time to prepare is unmatched. But the Eagles are 7-0 this season vs. playoff teams and 16-1 overall with Jalen Hurts in the lineup. If Hurts’ injury really affects him, my prediction will be off, but I expect him to play at a high level.

Also, KC is winless in seven attempts to cover the spread this season following a game in which they did cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 9-2 ATS under Sirianni following a big win by 14+ points. 

Super Bowl teams with the MVP (Mahomes is the prohibitive favorite this year to win it) are 6-15 straight-up including 0-8 in the last eight.

Philly Fan rejoice! My pick for Super Bowl LVII is Philadelphia minus the points. 

Is the league catching up with the Kansas City Chiefs? I don't think that is the case. I think the case is the Chiefs put most of their money into an elite offense, and a few early-round picks on defense did not pan out. The Chiefs have continued to not cover games, something which started the second half of last season as their potent offense has been negated by the bad defense. Through three games, the Chiefs have allowed more yards to their opponents than they have generated themselves. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts has relished his role as a sizeable underdog, turning in a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog from 4 to 11 points. I can't buy in on the Chiefs until they can get something out of their defense, and that hasn't happened for a long time. Make the play on Philadelphia.