Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants Point Spread Picks

Combine the Aces (-420) and the Chiefs (-300) into a 2-team parlay at -154 odds.

Kansas City was humiliated 27-3 at Tennessee last week and that means the Chiefs will come out firing for this one as the Chiefs still have the #3 offense in the league and they're up against the #23 defense overall and #25 against the run. The Giants are allowing 25.7 points per game and the Chiefs, even with Pat Mahomes having thrown nine interceptions, still average more than 300 passing yards. New York does come off a 25-3 win over Carolina, but that was after getting blown out its two previous games against Dallas and the Rams. The Giants are 0-7 their past seven games after allowing 15 or fewer points their previous game, and 10-25-1 ATS after an ATS win. Kansas City is 15-5-1 ATS its last 21 Monday games and 6-2 ATS overall its last eight games after a loss. The Giants still are dealing with some key injuries, including Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Kenny Golladay (knee), who are questionable. Lay the points with the Chiefs.

The New York Giants are a train wreck. Coach Ben McAdoo is taking a lot of heat even from his own players that have made some bad comments about him and having lost the team. Last week may have been rock bottom as they went to San Francisco and lost to the previously winless Niners. The Chiefs come into this one at 6-3, but the three losses all have come in their last four games. The Chiefs are coming off their bye week, and I think Andy Reid is going have this defense giving Eli Manning fits. Andy Reid has been around a long time, and when you give this guy 13 days to prepare for an opponent he usually stops them cold. Reed's teams after a bye are 17-4-1 to the UNDER and allow just 14.6 points per game. He knows the door to winning is through defense, so look for KC to completely shut down the meager Giants' offense. Take the UNDER.

I don't think a team could be looking any uglier than the New York Giants do after three weeks. They were supposed to be a playoff caliber team, but have started 0-3 with their last loss an incredibly embarrassing 38-0 beat down. While Peyton Manning continues to enter the record book, brother Eli has been quite the contrary with eight INTs through three games. And, last week for good measure, he was sacked seven times. How do they survive a Chiefs team that has reversed their fortune from a 2-14 team a year ago, to start 3-0? It's called the contrarian NFL, and as expected, bettors line up all over the Chiefs here. But, the Giants aren't as bad as they appear and the Chiefs aren't as good as they appear. The thing muddying our view? Turnovers! Kansas City is leading the league in turnover differential at +9 while the Giants are in the basement at -9! Turnovers are largely luck and tend to regress to the mean. So, there is a lot of line value here thanks to whacky luck. Tom Coughlin has been on the sidelines a long time, and seeing his team hit rock bottom a week ago is not going to sit well. With the Giants season is basically on the line, I look for a different team to take the field in this one. Teams that were shutout in their last game, and playing as a road dog have covered 64% of all games since 1989. Teams that lost their last game by 31 or more points cover 58% of the time in their next game as well. In their last 11 games following a stinker offensive performance (gaining under 250 yards), the Giants offense has come to life with nine of the those eleven going OVER the total. Manning is certainly capable, and you know he can't wait to get back on the field here. The Giants have taken the last five in this series and KansasCity is an awful 0-6 ATS the past three seasons as home chalk. Under Coughlin, the Giants are 37-25 ATS as a dog and 45-30 ATS in road games and 17-8 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better. The Coughlin-led G-Men are also 16-5 OVER in road games with a total in this range (42.5 to 45 points) and 13-1 OVER after scoring under 10 points last game.  I think the Giants offense gets redemption here and scores big. Play contrarian. Take New York and the OVER.