Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

New Orleans began the season with two impressive blowout wins. But since then, they've lost to Philadelphia and Atlanta averaging 13 points. QB Derek Carr has one touchdown and two picks in the last two contests. Carr struggles when confronted with quick interior pressure and the Chiefs are outstanding in that department anchored by Chris Jones. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (6 TDs, 5 INTs) has yet to heat up but the Chiefs are still undefeated. That's because, like last year, the defense has been terrific ranked 13th in yards allowed, seventh against the run, eighth in points given up, and 12th on third down, while the offense is ninth on third down (42.55%). The Chiefs are on a 10-0 SU, 8-1-1 ATS run, have home field, and match up well. Play Kansas City. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have a bit more breathing room sitting on top of the AFC as Pittsburgh has suddenly lost two straight games. The Chiefs are a bit more vulnerable this season as they have not been able to stop the running game. That plays right into the hands of the New Orleans Saints, who have a terrific running game and has one of the best defenses in the league. The Saints are one of the best pass defending units in the NFL, and if they can eat clock with their running game and get some stops with their defense, they are more than capable of standing toe to toe with the Chiefs. Taysom Hill is a versatile QB that provides the run threat that Drew Brees did not. The Saints are allowing 11.6 points per game in their last five and have the tools to compete here. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been a pretty good defensive team in recent years, and right now they are allowing 20.8 points per game. The Chiefs offense, however, over the last four games has produced just 19 points per game. The Saints have seen themselves in four shootouts already this season, and four of their five games have been decided by three points, one way or the other. The Saints, over the years, have been great offensively at home, but have struggled more on the road, averaging just 18.6 points per game last year away from the Superdome. This year their defense has been better on the road where they have allowed 25 points per game (vs. 39 per game at home). The Saints have been an underdog just 14 times over the past two and a half seasons, going 11-3 ATS in those games. Under Sean Payton, this team is 30-19 ATS when geting points, including 17-7 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. I think the spread is inflated here. Take New Orleans.

I predicted that the Saints would have a rough go of it in 2012, taking them UNDER their season win total as a Top Play. Right now that bet's looking pretty good. This team took a lot of hits in the offseason. They suffered a lot of distractions and their coach was suspended for the season. They are now taking hits on the field, having allowed 75 points in two games. They sit last in the league in stopping their opponent and have allowed an opposing QB rating of 133.25 through two games. Regardless of how good the offense is, you have to stop someone especially as a nearly -10 point favorite. The Chiefs has a very rough go of it and also sit at 0-2, but they have an experienced QB that could be in for a big day against this Saints’ defense. The Chiefs have run for over 150 yards per game, and I'm sure they will be grinding it out here to keep the Saints’ offense off the field. They should have some success with the Saints as they’re allowing 186 rushing yards per game. New Orleans has been poor against bad teams at 5-12 ATS in their last 17. The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS the past three seasons following a road loss as we see lines typically get shaded after a tough game for the Chiefs. Also, in his coaching career, Romeo Crennel is 14-3 ATS after game in which his team allowed 30+ points. Play on Kansas City in this one.

The last time Kansas City played in a game with a total of 50 or higher was Novemebr 27th, 2005. That's almost three years and 47 games ago! The Drew Brees factor and the public's love for high-scoring teams means the oddsmakers had to post this one very high to get balanced action. But we are gonna go with the facts instead. The Chiefs offense averages 16 ppg and I'm not sure the last time I saw a total with one team averaging under 17 a game. It takes two teams to help reach a total this high. Kansas City has actually played UNDER in the last five games they have played with a total of 50+. The Saints certainly have a good offense, but the fact is they have not gotten out of the 20s in the majority of their games this season. The Chiefs had a rare big game last week passing for over 250 yards. Now everyone believes in Tyler Thigpen? Hmmm.  The last nine times KC has passed for 250+, they played UNDER in seven of the nine games following. By the same token, they allowed over 250 in the air last week and have played UNDER in five of the last seven that happened. We have an inflated total here and I'll back the UNDER.