Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

It's official. The Bill Belichick era will come to an end after this disastrous season for the Pats. Kansas City's defense is very good and matches up great against a struggling New England offense. The Chiefs are sixth in total yards allowed behind one of the best secondaries in the league. They're sixth versus the pass and fourth allowing 5.7 yards per pass. Kansas City is 55-36 ATS on the road after a loss. New England comes off a win at Pittsburgh that ended a brutal 0-5 SU/ATS run. The Patriots rank 28th offensively in yards, last in points (13 per game), and 28th on third down (32.95%). They won't be able to run well with RB Rhamondre Stevenson expected to miss another game (high ankle sprain). New England is on a 3-10 spread run, run including 4-14 ATS as an underdog. Play Kansas City. 

This line took a jump on Saturday when it was announced that Patriots QB Cam Newton had tested positive for COVID. Chiefs practice squad QB Jordan Ta'amu was also positive, but further tests proved negative for the rest of the Patriots and Chiefs' roster. Brian Hoyer will lead the offense for New England, but he'll do so without the services of Sony Michel, who was ruled out Monday morning with a quad injury. The Patriots will look to go with a ball-control offense but if they fall behind, they really don't have the passing attack to score quickly. Unlike the Chiefs, whose fast and multi-dimensional attack causes nightmares for even the stoutest, defensive minds like Bill Belichick. Hoyer has a career completion percentage of 59.1% and he's shown very little ability to run the football in limited action over the past few years. The journeyman has a 8:8 TD-to-INT ratio in that span, similar to Newton's 2:2 ratio in three games as a Patriot. Kansas City is home with an unstoppable offense, but the defense has really impressed ranking #11 in yards allowed and sixth in points surrendered (20 per game). QB Patrick Mahomes (9 TDs, 0 INTS) is off to another MVP start, with a trio of talents in TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill, and WR Sammy Watkins. And don't forget the new-look rushing attack, led by rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has 66 touches his first three games as a pro. The Chiefs are on a 16-6 spread run, 13-5 ATS as chalk, and 17-7 ATS after one or more consecutive wins. They are also 53-34 ATS against teams that average 4.5 rushing yards per carry. Including next week's game against the Raiders and a Week 6 Thursday nighter, KC is about to play three games in 11 days. They can't afford to let this important home date slip away. Play Kansas City to cover. 

The home team is 10-0 straight up the last five years in the NFL's AFC/NFC Championship games and in NFL history, road teams have only won 30 of 96 conference championship games. New England was only 3-5 on the road this season while Kansas City won eight of nine home contests. The Chiefs look to avenge a 43-40 road loss to the Patriots on Oct. 14 when Patrick Mahomes went 23-of-36 for 352 yards and four touchdowns, but was victimized by two interceptions. Tom Brady finished at 24-of-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown with no picks. Tyreek Hill had seven catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns and now-departed Kareem Hunt rushed for 80 yards. Damien Williams has been an adequate replacement for Hunt as he rushed for 129 yards on 5.2 yards per carry in Kansas City's 31-13 win over Indianapolis. The Chiefs' defense has been much improved since that first meeting with the Pats, and the Chiefs have allowed opponents an average of 21.4 points their last five games, which is not exceptional, but enough to support Kansas City's prolific offense. Linebacker Justin Houston had a key fumble recovery and two sacks last week and he has been the catalyst in his team's recent resurgence defensively. The Colts were held to 263 total yards and 87 rushing yards. Dee Ford has also been a force at linebacker and the Chiefs, surprisingly, led the league in sacks in the regular season with 52. Kansas City beat the Patriots 42-27 in 2017 at Arrowhead Stadium, which is known for being a house of horrors for opposing teams. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the teens at game time. Tom Brady has been lethal in cold weather at 24-4 SU for his career with a temperature below freezing, including 12-1 straight-up in the playoffs. The problem is that 12 of those 13 were at home. New England has not won a road playoff game since 2007! (0-3). His home playoff numbers show 46 TDs/18 INTs at 29.2 points per game. But the road shows just eight TDs to eight INTs and 24.3 ppg, and that's a big difference! The Patriots are on the road for just the third time in eight seasons in the AFC Championship game and they lost the first two to the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs also fit a huge playoff situation as well. In a playoff game played on a team that averages better than 2.95 sacks per game and throws for more yards per pass attempt than their opponent to a total of higher than 39 and not a favorite of -7 or more, these teams are 20-7 straight-up. Also, a playoff team that lost this season to this opponent by exactly three points is 12-8 SU in the playoffs. Take the Chiefs on the moneyline.

This one is a great test for the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs as they head to New England. Since 2001, the Patriots have always been up for the challenge vs. the new kids on the block, as they own a 17-7 ATS record against undefeated teams prior to Week 7. Better than that, they are also 18-6 SU against them. You can be sure New England will be ready for this one. Over the same period, the Patriots are also great at exacting revenge, as they own a 53-28-3 ATS mark with revenge. The Chiefs' defense has not been very good, but Pat Mahomes has been sensational, but you can be sure Bill Belichick has something cooked up for him. Take New England to win this one straight-up.