Kansas City Chiefs vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

Minnesota has scored the second-fewest points (16) in two preseason games. They come off a 12-10 home loss to the Colts. The Vikings won't be playing QB Kirk Cousins in this meaningless road game, so backups Jake Browning and Kellen Mond will go. The two have not thrown a TD pass yet with one pick, two sacks, while the team is 7-of-25 on third down. In Minnesota's last three preseason finales they've averaged 15 points as coach Mike Zimmer historically shows nothing on offense. Kansas City won't risk injury to franchise QB Patrick Mahomes, so below-average backups Shane Buechele, Chad Henne, and Anthony Gordon will split time. The Chiefs haven't topped 20 points in their two games as the quarterbacks have combined for three TDs and three picks, while the defense has been very good allowing an average of 13 points. Take the UNDER.

There were concerns about Kirk Cousins earlier in the season, but he has turned it around and the Vikings have won four straight while averaging 31.7 points. Cousins completed 23-of-26 for 285 yards and Stefon Diggs caught seven passes for 143 yards in the win against Washington. Cousins' 88.5 percent completion percentage was a Minnesota single-game record. Pat Mahomes is still questionable although the Chiefs still put up 24 points in their loss to Green Bay. Matt Moore threw for 267 yards and two touchdowns, but Kansas City was outgained 374-337. The Chiefs have lost three of four after starting the season 4-0 and their defense is #24 in the league allowing 377.0 yards per game.  Surprisingly, the Vikings are third in total offense yards while scoring 26.4 points per game. Wide receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) did not play against the Redskins, but is expected to play on Sunday. Minnesota has covered five of its last six November games while the Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS their last six November games. Also, Kansas City is 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 versus teams with winning records. The OVER is 11-5 in the Chiefs' last 16 games overall and they have gone OVER four of their last five home contests. Take the Vikings and the OVER.

The Kansas City Chiefs took a blow when they lost Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL. Many may have forgotten that likely replacement Knile Davis ran for consecutive 100+ yard games last season, so I think the Chiefs will be ok. The Chiefs did also make some headway last week on defense as after allowing 30+ in three straight games, they held the Bears to one score, but faltered as many NFL teams do in a prevent defense, and Chicago scored on each of their last two possessions. The Vikings have some issues of their own with their top two receivers in Wallace and Johnson both ailing. This could put the Chiefs into a situation where they can sneak another man in the box to try and limit Adrien Peterson. The Vikings have not taken advantage of their bye week, as in their last five they have come out flat, and have been 0-5 ATS. Play the points on Kansas City.

Kansas City fell apart on defense in the second half last season then they had a bleak offseason, not upgrading the defense and losing key pieces on the offensive line. Now they haven't had a good August, especially on defense, allowing 28 and 39 points. Their QB rotation isn't stellar or explosive with Alex Smith, Aaron Murray, Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray. Yet, they are favored against an unbeaten Minnesota team with an impressive young coach. New coaches often want to impress their fans and new boss and the Vikings have a good one in Mike Zimmer. His reputation is off a no-nonsense coordinator who is not afraid to get in player's faces and speak his mind. He has demanded a good August and gotten it with wins over Oakland and Arizona. And this QB rotation is very impressive for preseason - a deep unit that combines talent and NFL experience with Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder and high draft pick Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was projected by many to go No. 1 in the draft before slipping and has a shot at the starting job. He was 16-of-20 for 177 yards, 2 TDs and no picks in the comeback win over the Cardinals last week as the offense totaled 439 yards. Back the Vikings.