Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs hold the cards in their own hands regarding their playoff future, and despite a 6-8 record Miami is still alive, but would need a lot of help. Miami has been a team that can play with better teams this season. They won wins vs the Titans at home, and have upset New England and Atlanta on the road, both as a double-digit dog. I find it strange that kansas City, a team that has been 3-6 in their last 9 games is posted as a bigger home favorite over the Dolphins than either Atlanta, or New England was.  The fact is the Chiefs would have covered -12 just 1 time in their last 11 games. The Dolphins have won 5 of the last 7 vs the Chiefs at home, as well as the last 2 here on the road. Make the play on Miami.

The Dolphins missed out on a golden opportunity last week. They upset New England in week one and then went to Buffalo and failed to show up. It has kind of been the way this team has operated in recent years, occasionally looking like a playoff team and more often than that, leaving you scratching your head. The Dolphins finished 11-5 back in the 2008-09 season, but have not had a winning record since. One of the biggest reasons is the that they beat teams like New England at home, but in games they should win like this one, they are 12-33-1 ATS when they face a team with a losing road record. Well, the Chiefs fit the bill at 0-1 on the road with injuries mounting already. After starting last season at 9-0, the Chiefs are starring down the barrel at 0-3, so you know that they will bring it here or their season could already have gotten away from them in three weeks. The Chiefs have played as well as anyone on the road where they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 and have enough to play this one down to the wire where the points will be huge. Also, Andy Reid is 43-23 ATS in his coaching career as a road underdog. Grab the points on the Chiefs.

Looking at the Week 9 card, this line is the most suspicious. Here we have a struggling team in the Miami Dolphins that are 0-7 on the season that is playing on the road vs. a winning team. Yet the oddsmakers are saying that they are by and large equal teams, considering a 3-point home field advantage? The public has taken a big bite on this one with over 70% backing the Chiefs. As bad as the Dolphins have played this season, I like them here. Miami is an ugly dog that has brought home the cash in the NFL year over year. The longer a team goes winless in the NFL, the more valuable they become. Since 1989, whenever a winless team takes the field in Week 9 or later, they win against the spread over 74% of the time! The Dolphins have been the best team in the league against the number in recent years when playing on the road vs. a team with a winning record on the season where they stand at 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27. Miami is also 18-9 ATS under Tony Sparano in road games. Contrary to that success by the Dolphins, the Chiefs have been 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite, as well as just 3-10-1 ATS as a chalk at home. We took 'em last week and it worked. Play ugly again here - take Miami.