Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams Point Spread Picks

Matthew Stafford isn't tracking to play Saturday, and across the field Patrick Mahomes remains in shutdown mode as he continues to recover from December knee surgery, with Andy Reid saying the odds lean against using him at all. That means this game is decided almost entirely by each team's QB2 and QB3, and the Rams at plus money are being priced like the inferior team when neither Stafford nor the gap he represents will be on the field. Kansas City is handing extended run to Justin Fields and rookie Garrett Nussmeier, with Reid raving that Nussmeier moves the ball every time he's in and has been loaded up with reps. Los Angeles counters with Ty Simpson, who Sean McVay has already confirmed will play, and possibly Stetson Bennett IV behind him. Both quarterback rooms are auditioning for real jobs, not protecting a scheme, and Kansas City is down key skill-position starters in Xavier Worthy and Cyrus Allen, pushing even more backups into meaningful roles. That's a setup for loose execution and extended drives on both sides, not a tight, low-scoring rehearsal. Side with the Rams on the moneyline, and ride the OVER.

The oddsmakers finally have given up on the defending Super Bowl champions as the Los Angeles Rams are two-touchdown underdogs at Kansas City this week. However, that is too many points to lay for the Chiefs, who are looking at three straight road contests after this game, including a huge revenge game next week against Cincinnati, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Kansas City still is not a moneymaker for bettors as it is just 2-6-1 ATS its past nine games and 0-5-1 ATS at home. Also, the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS following a win and 2-7-1 ATS their past 10 November games. Matthew Stafford has been ruled out and Bryce Perkins is expected to start after completing five of 10 for for 61 yards after relieving Stafford against New Orleans. The Rams have gone UNDER four of their past five road games and they are 13-6 UNDER after a loss. The Chiefs are 5-1 UNDER their past six home games and 5-2 UNDER following a win. Take the points with the Rams and the UNDER.

This was one of the highest posted totals in NFL history when the game was originally going to be played in Mexico City. Then it went up even more when it was moved to Los Angeles due to poor field conditions. All of which makes this a great UNDER play as the public usually overreacts to two good offensive teams and inflates the number. Kansas City has gone UNDER in seven of its last eight games against teams with winning records, and quarterback Pat Mahomes is not 100 percent with a foot injury. The Chiefs are 20-8-1 UNDER their last 29 November games and they went UNDER by nearly 10 points in last week's 26-14 win over Arizona. The Rams had three straight UNDERS before going OVER their last two, but the total is this game is much higher than those two were. The Rams are #15 in yards allowed (355.2 per game) and #12 in points allowed (23.1). The Chiefs allow opponents an average of 24.0 points and haven't given up more than 23 points their last four games. Play this game to stay UNDER the total.

If there is such a thing as a letdown situation in preseason, this would be it as the Rams enjoyed a thrilling, come-from-behind win against Dallas in their first game back in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Kansas City suffered a gut-wrenching last-second loss to Seattle after leading the entire game. Sean Mannion was 18 of 25 for 147 yards with one pick for Los Angeles. Case Keenum completed six of seven for 58 yards. Jared Goff was four of nine with an interception and appeared to be far from being ready for a starter's role. The Chiefs played five quarterbacks with similar statistics. Alex Smith completed three of four passes for 36 yards and led the Chiefs on a touchdown drive. Aaron Murray finished three of five for 52 yards. Tyler Bray, Nick Foles and Kevin Hogan also saw action. Foles has looked good this week in training camp, while Murray is throwing with confidence, so the Chiefs obviously have depth at quarterback even after Bray suffered a small chip fracture in his cervical spine. Jeff Fisher is 39-42 straight-up and 38-41-2 ATS in preseason.  Kansas City was 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 ATS last year in exhibition play, including a 24-17 win over the Rams. Also, the Rams are 2-10 straight-up and 3-9 ATS the last three preseasons. Look for Kansas City to bounce back after its stunning loss last week, so play the Chiefs.