Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Point Spread Picks

The Chargers lost 23-17 to Denver last Sunday, their fifth straight loss to open the season, and their defense has given up 26, 26, 24, 30, and 23 points in those five games. I had the OVER when they lost 30-23 at Seattle on October 4, and it cashed. Kansas City has scored 31 against Denver, 33 against Indianapolis, 24 at Miami and 30 at Las Vegas, so its offense has reached 24 or more in each of its four games. Chargers defensive backs Derwin James Jr. and Donte Jackson missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with hamstring injuries, which matters for a defense that has not held anyone under 23. Kansas City wide receiver Rashee Rice missed practice both days with a hamstring and knee injury, and wide receiver Tyquan Thornton, who caught two touchdowns at Las Vegas, is on injured reserve with a dislocated ankle. The Chargers have scored 14, 14, 16, 23, and 17, and their offensive line is missing tackle Rashawn Slater and center Tyler Biadasz, both on injured reserve, while tackle Joe Alt did not practice either day. Take the OVER in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.

Combine the Chiefs (-260) and the Demon Deacons (-3000) into a 2-team parlay at -224 odds.

Kansas City has won the past seven meetings, and the last three have been easy UNDERS, including their wins last season, 17-10 and 19-17. The Chiefs have won 11 of 14 road games overall and 10 straight on the road when playing the Chargers. Kansas City has gone UNDER six of eight against AFC opponents. Los Angeles has lost six of nine September games, and it is 2-8-1 ATS in its past 11 as an underdog. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their past six as underdogs of 0.5-3.0. The Chiefs suffered key injuries to the wide receiver corps, but should be healthier this year, and the offensive line must also improve. If both of those concerns are corrected, Patrick Mahomes will have another banner season after a relatively disappointing 2024, at least for him. There are still some doubts about Justin Herbert, who was picked off four times in the Chargers' 32-12 loss to Houston in the playoffs. However, Herbert does hold the record for most passing yards in a quarterback's first five seasons. He'll have to continue that pace as his team lost several key players on the defensive side. Kansas City has gone UNDER four straight against the AFC West. This game is in São Paulo, Brazil. Take the Chiefs and the UNDER.

It's a low total, but two great quarterbacks face each other. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert (13 TDs, one interception) has led the Chargers to wins in six of their last eight. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (19 TDs, 11 INTs) leads an offense that is No. 1 in the NFL on third down (51.83%). When these teams met on this field a year ago, the Chiefs won 31-17, as Mahomes threw for 424 yards. Play Los Angeles/Kansas City OVER the total.