Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Redskins

I know that it is early in the season, but sometimes you have to take the game for what it is, and not when it is. Last week Jacksonville opened up a 17-point lead as an 11-point underdog and still did not cover. Why didn't they cover? They gave up a fumble return for a TD in the final 1:30 of that game. Without that rarity, they cover the number relatively easily. Looking closer at that game, Philly ran 77 plays, three of which went for a combined 142 yards and subsequent TDs. Their other 74 plays averaged 3.6 yards per play, which defensively speaking is utter domination of a potent offense. The Jags also collected five sacks in the game. So, this team needs to fix a couple of things, and avoid the big play, and they can compete defensively. They won't be contending with an offense this week that has so many skill-position weapons. Last week against a Houston team that went 4-12 last year, Washington scored in the first nine minutes of the game and never scored a point the rest of the way. The threat of RG3 running the ball, which made Washington so hard to defend in his rookie season, is gone, at least for now. He carried three times for two yards, and he was sacked three times, so his effectiveness outside of the pocket is diminished at this point. This game fits the strongest situation I have that remains in perfection. It is in part based on both teams playing off a big loss. Since 1989, this situation has never failed as it is an amazing 0-37 ATS, which in this case goes against Washington. Take the points on Jacksonville.

What's wrong with Mike Shanahan? He takes Donovan McNabb out of a game in the crucial two-minute drill, providing a slew of excuses. Then he awards him a 5-year contract. Then, in week 15, he benches the 6-time Pro Bowler again in favor of Rex Gossman, who will start the last two games as well. Shanahan appears to have lost it. In any case, the Skins’ offense has improved some and Grossman did a decent job last week. Their defense ranks dead last in yards but in points, they aren't horrible (24.5 per game). Guess what team allows more per game? You guessed it. The Jags have given up 26.1 per game, good for fifth worst in the league. Despite all the drama in Washington, the Skins have won five games and lost six by 5 points or less this season. Turn a few of their close losses around and they are 9-5 instead of 5-9. Jacksonville is 8-6, but of their eight wins, five have come by 7 points or less, meaning in 11 out of 14 games they wouldn't have covered this number. The Jags have actually been outscored on average this year by over 3 points per game and that includes their home games. The bottom line here is that this number is too high. Over the past three seasons, Jacksonville is 2-10 ATS following a game in which they allowed 30+ points and they are also 1-8 ATS as a favortie of 3.5 to 9.5 points. I like the Skins plus the points.