Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

Since mid-November, Jacksonville is 7-0 SU and ATS. The Jaguars have won these games by an average of 17 points. Among these victories was a 25-3 win versus the Titans on Nov. 30 at Tennessee. The 3-13 Titans have shown a pulse, going 2-2 in their last four games. But Jacksonville will not be holding back. The Jaguars capture the AFC South Division title with a win and possibly gain the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Offensive guru Liam Coen has coached Trevor Lawrence into having his finest NFL season. The Jaguars have averaged 33 points and 356 yards per game during their last seven games. Tennessee averages only 17.3 points per game and ranks 28th in scoring defense, allowing 27.3 points per game. The Titans need to run the ball effectively to have a shot at an upset. However, Jacksonville has the best run defense in the NFL and gives up the fewest points. Take the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has won three of four, averaging 30.3 points behind QB Trevor Lawrence (14 TDs, 11 INTs). The defense is ranked 26th against the pass and 25th on third down (41.8%). The Jaguars are on a 6-1 run OVER the total on the road. Tennessee has lost nine of 10, with a defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed, 25th against the run (132.8 rushing yards allowed per game), 19th on third down, and 29th in points surrendered (27.5 per game). They come off a 30-24 home loss to Seattle and are on a 7-3 run OVER the total. Take Jacksonville/Tennessee OVER the total. 

Last-place Tennessee is getting outscored by 133 points, which is the worst differential in the AFC. Their quarterbacks have thrown as many interceptions (20) as TDs. The offense is 27th in total yards, 22nd on third down, and 25th in points. The Titans are on a 4-15 SU, 3-16-1 ATS run, including 2-6 SU/ATS on the road. They were favored at home over Jacksonville three weeks ago and lost 10-6. They've failed to cover their last five games as a favorite. Jacksonville comes off a 19-14 loss at Las Vegas and is on a 5-3-1 spread run. Play Jacksonville. 

Trevor Lawrence was placed on injured reserve, but Jacksonville wasn't doing so well with him with a current 2-10 record, although the Jaguars are 6-5-1 ATS this season. Mac Jones replaced Lawrence against Houston and threw for 235 yards and two TDs, and the Jaguars almost pulled off the win before losing 23-20. It was a good turnaround after the Jags were demolished at Detroit two weeks earlier, and they have a good opportunity against the Titans, who are 3-9 straight up and 2-10 ATS this year. The Titans were crushed by Washington 42-19 as the Commanders accumulated 463 total offense yards, including 267 on the ground. The Titans are 4-0 OVER after totaling fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, and they managed only 35 against the Commanders. Tennessee QB Will Levis completed just 18 of 37 for 212 yards. Both meetings last year went OVER, and the Titans have allowed 29.8 points per game in their past four games while going OVER their previous two. Jacksonville has gone OVER six of eight. Take the Jaguars and the OVER.

Jacksonville is a road favorite in the finale with a division title on the line, tied with the Texans and Colts at 9-7. They were favored in their last road game, too...and lost 30-12 at Tampa Bay. This is not an elite defense, ranked 20th in yards allowed and 15th in points given up. The Jaguars are 4-19 ATS after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in the last game, plus 15-30 ATS after allowing four or fewer yards per play in the previous contest. Tennessee is well-coached and will play hard in the role of spoiler. They've lost all of their road games but one, but are 4-4 at home. In their last five home games, they beat Atlanta and Carolina, while losing three others by three points each time. And the Titans are 17-5 ATS at home after scoring nine or fewer points in the last game. Play Tennessee.