Jacksonville Jaguars vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

This should be an opportunity for a pair of struggling offenses to finally have some success. St. Louis is allowing 30.2 points per game through four contests. They have not had much success stopping the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. That has kept opponents in favorable down and distance situations, leading to a 47.2% third down conversion rate against them. Things have not been much better for Jacksonville who is allowing 32.2 ppg on the season, and an ugly 5.2 yards per carry on the ground. Their opponents' ground game hasn't been the only problem for these teams, as each is allowing the opposing team a passer rating of over 100. This is the week that one, or both of these offenses is going to break out. The Jags have played five straight to the OVER on turf, while the Rams have played six of their last seven at home to the OVER, as well as following a bad offensive showing of 15 points or less with five straight to the OVER. When Jeff Fisher has faced bad pass defense (those allowing 7+ yards per pass), his teams are 39-18 to the OVER. Take the OVER in a game between two awful defenses that rank in the bottom five in the league in points allowed.

Said it all season - St. Louis isn't very good. As a result, this overrated club is 2-5 ATS so far this year. They beat New Orleans last week thanks in part to the worst call by the Zebras in recent memory (you've all seen it a dozen times on ESPN by now). New Orleans for goodness sake! The final score in that game was misleading as the Rams were losing for much of it. Prior to last week, they got spanked by Indianapolis, Seattle and the Giants. All very good teams you say. Yes! But, Jacksonville is right there. My power ratings tell me that Jacksonville is a top-5 team - maybe top 3. They are almost as underrated as the San Diego Chargers. Jacksonville beat Cincinnati and Pittsburgh back-to-back before their bye last week! And, they beat a very good Seattle team in week 1 and held Indianapolis to 10 points in week two. Their only two losses came to Indy and Denver - two playoff teams. Their fifth ranked defense should have success this weekend against St. Louis whether Bulger or Martin gets the start and whether or not Torry Holt goes. Take the top caliber team against the overrated one for two stars.