Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

Jacksonville's offense showed exactly what it can be in Week 1, hanging 34 points on Cleveland without a turnover, and while a good Denver defense held the Jaguars to 13 the following week, that's a jump in competition, not evidence of anything wrong with this offense. New England's defense has allowed just eight points a game, but that came against Seattle and Pittsburgh, who combined for only 16 points across those two games, a level of competition Jacksonville simply isn't. I had the Patriots covering back in the opener against Seattle, a low-scoring slog they pulled out late, and the version of New England that shows up today gets a different matchup: a Jaguars defense that just let Denver's offense come back and win on the road, one that can be had by a team willing to sustain drives the way the Patriots did against Pittsburgh, when they controlled the ball for over 34 minutes. I like the total to climb when two offenses can move the ball against defenses that haven't been fully tested yet, and New England is live enough on the road to be worth backing on the spread, too. Take New England with the points, and bet the OVER as a Max Play. 

The bottom feeders of the NFL will meet in London and any points loom large and in this case New England is the underdog and the Patriots are 14-3 ATS their past 17 games after losing at home by double digits. That's the situation in this game as they come off a 41-21 loss to Houston, but Jacksonville will provide some lesser competition as the Jaguars also are 1-5 while averaging only 18.8 points per game. New England averages 13.8. The Jaguars lost 35-16 to Chicago also in London last week as their home fans are lucky not having to see them play in person. Trevor Lawrence threw for 234 yards with an interception and the Jaguars were outgained 373-278. Drake Maye was decent in his debut for the Patriots throwing for 243 yards, but with two picks. New England has won nine of the past 10 meetings. Jacksonville has gone UNDER six of nine Sunday games and seven of its past 10 overall. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

A pair of teams that look to run the football clash here, and that chews up yards and the clock. Jacksonville's offense is #26 in the league in total yards and dead last in scoring (14.5 points per game). Their two QBs have combined for nine TDs and 14 interceptions. The Jaguars are 19-7 UNDER the total against winning teams and 16-5 UNDER as an underdog. New England's defense is third in yards allowed, second in points surrendered (17.3 per game), and fifth on third down. The Patriots are 17-6 UNDER the total at home after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse, and coach Bill Belichick is 35-24 UNDER off a loss as a favorite. Also, NFL home teams like New England off an upset loss as chalk of 10+ points are 78-29 UNDER the total that next game. Play this one to stay UNDER the total.

New England at Jacksonville has suddenly become a marquee matchup, especially after the Patriots came from behind to beat the Jaguars 24-20 in last year's playoffs. The Patriots outgained Houston 389-325 in their 27-20 win in Week 1 and Tom Brady was his old self with 26-of-39 passing for 277 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Brady connected seven times with Rob Gronkowski for 123 yards and Rex Burkhead rushed for 64 yards on 18 carries although he is questionable this week due to a concussion. New England is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games as a non-division favorite and the Jaguars are 1-10 ATS the last 11 years in Week 2. The Patriots are 14-3 ATS their last 17 road games and 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams with winning records. Blake Bortles was 18-of-33 for 176 yards with a TD and interception against the Giants and he also had a 41-yard run. The Jaguars have gone OVER the last four years in Week 2 and they have soared OVER the total 10 of their last 14 in the month of September. New England did not look good in preseason, but it put together a solid performance last week and it's still Brady vs. Bortles. Play the Patriots and OVER.

The Jaguars have gone from a team that was brutally bad last season to one playing for the AFC Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl. Jacksonville comes in off another impressive win, scoring 45 points at Pittsburgh. The Jags defense is stout up front with fast defensive backs, which on paper, matches up well with New England's offense. However, they have been a mixed bag against talented spread offenses. They beat Pittsburgh handily twice, but they also lost 27-24 at Arizona, lost 27-17 to the high-octane Rams offense at home, and gave up 44 points to former Patriots' QB Jimmy Garoppolo in a loss against San Francisco. This team also lost twice to the Titans, a team the Patriots rolled over last week, 35-14. Even thought they won last week they gave up 42 points which is of major concern when coming into to Foxboro to face Tom Brady. While their average defensive numbers are very good, the Jags have allowed three teams to score 37+ points. New England's defense has been very good since a bad start to the season, but they remain ranked #29 in the NFL in yards allowed. Perhaps the total being set in the mid-to-upper 40s is a clue that the oddsmakers believe the Jags' defense will not hold up vs. New England, and I agree. The Pats have gone for 396+ yards in 11 games, and it sure looks as though they will do so here as well, as they have gone for 370+ in all but one home game. It may surprise most that Jacksonville averages 26.2 points per game on the season because all the talk is about the defense. Over the past three seasons, the Jags are 11-2 to the OVER when facing good offenses (teams averaging 24+ points per game). Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 47-28 OVER at home tot a total over 45. I think that they can move the ball enough on the Pats to supplement the game scoring enough to push this one OVER. Play this one to finish OVER the total.