Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Kansas City started this season 0-2, but they have righted the ship and have won their past two games including 37-20 over the Ravens last week. Patrick Mahomes threw for 270 yards and Xavier Worthy returned from a shoulder injury to catch five passes for 83 yards. The Chiefs have won the past eight meetings with Jacksonville dating to 2010. The last one was a 17-9 victory in 2023. Kansas City has won 13 of 17 road games and 17 of 20 overall against AFC opponents. The Jaguars have lost 13 of 18 against the AFC. Trevor Lawrence has been adequate this season, but not great with five TD passes and four interceptions for a 48.3 QB rating. The Jaguars come off a 26-21 win over San Francisco by scoring 17 points off turnovers while getting an 87-yard punt return for a TD from Parker Washington. They likely won't be so fortunate against the Chiefs. Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS its past seven Monday games and 4-0 UNDER after allowing more than 250 yards passing its previous game. The Jaguars are 5-1 UNDER their past six home games and 6-1 UNDER versus the AFC West. Kansas City is 7-2 UNDER against the AFC South and it has gone UNDER six of seven October games. KC has the motivation here because 3-2 is a lot different than 2-3. Take the Chiefs and the UNDER.

With Bill Belichick gone, Kansas City has the best head coach in the NFL in Andy Reid. He has veteran QB Carson Wentz backing up star Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City offense has averaged 27.2 points in its last five preseason games winning four of them. Jacksonville has made major changes, including a largely new defensive coaching staff. Turnover-prone QBs Trevor Lawrence and newcomer Mac Jones lead the rotation. Through three seasons, Lawrence has 60 career turnovers, including an NFL-high 21 (14 interceptions and seven lost fumbles) last year. Jones has 24 TDs and 23 picks in the last two years. Play Kansas City.

The Kansas City Chiefs were missing a lot of key players in their opener and it showed. The Chiefs lost a tough one to the Detroit Lions 21-20. Jacksonville won in Indy but the offense, despite scoring 31 points, was held to just 342 yards and had two turnovers. It wasn't their best performance, but it got the job done. The Chiefs are healthier this week, and at this time the status of Travis Kelce is up in the air. The Chiefs rarely come back from a loss without playing a good game. They are 12-1 SU in that department, following a loss. They are also 9-5 ATS coming off a loss, so I think we are going to see a much different Kansas City team on the field this week in Jacksonville. Make the play on Kansas City.

Jacksonville overcame four Trevor Lawrence first-half interceptions as the Jags went on to win 31-30, stunning the Chargers. Lawrence redeemed himself by throwing for four touchdown passes in the second half and the game went OVER by 14.5 points. It was the fifth OVER in their past eight games and the three that didn't go OVER were due to bad offensive performances by the New York Jets, Houston, and Tennessee. However, Kansas City obviously will be a different story with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs leading the NFL in total yards and passing yardage along with the top ranking in points scored with 29.2 per game. Jacksonville was no slouch either, as it finished #10 in total yards and passing yardage while scoring 23.8 points per game. The Chiefs went OVER three of their last five and they are 10-3 OVER their past 13 January games, and 8-3 OVER after an ATS win. Jacksonville has gone OVER eight of 11 road games and four-straight overall versus teams with winning records. Play the OVER.

Talk about a cold front moving in! Kansas City goes from 70 degrees to 37 this weekend. Warm-weather Jacksonville is in town and new coach Doug Pederson has gotten some ball control on offense with the Jaguars ninth in the NFL averaging 146.8 yards rushing, but just No. 18 in scoring as they chew up yards and the clock. Jacksonville is 19-7 UNDER the total against winning teams, 12-3 UNDER versus opponents that average 24+ points, plus 22-10 UNDER on the road against teams that average 6+ yards per play. Kansas City leads the NFL in scoring (30.4 ppg) but just 24.2 per game at home, while the defense is allowing 23.5 points at home. The Chiefs are 49-30 UNDER the total as home chalk, 39-20 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, plus 31-16 UNDER at home versus pass defenses that surrender 235+ passing yards per contest in the second half of the season. Take Jacksonville/Kansas City UNDER the total.