Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Give Washington credit. They are 3-4 in the toughest division in football, with the other three teams a combined 17-3. Backup QB Taylor Heinicke (2 TDs, 1 INT) has been forced in but has plenty of experience. He's also playing well, with Washington off wins over Chicago (12-7) and Green Bay (23-21). The defense held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to 232 total yards while going 0-of-6 on third down. Washington's defense is second in the NFL on third down (29.55%), No. 13 in total yards allowed. The Commanders are 14-6 ATS after a victory, 43-24 ATS against teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards, while coach Ron Rivera is 23-8 ATS off a win as an underdog. Indianapolis comes off a 19-9 loss to Tennessee. QB Matt Ryan (9 TDs, 9 INTs) has been sacked 24 times behind a weak offensive line. The Colts are the third-worst in rushing (81 yards per game) and points (16.1 ppg). And NFL teams like the Colts that are favored while averaging fewer than 17 points per contest are 7-25 ATS. Play Washington.