Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

Indianapolis is 6-1, but only two of the wins were against teams with current records above .500, and it will be asking a lot for the Colts to cover a two-touchdown spread as they look ahead to a big game at Pittsburgh next week. Tennessee has a game under its belt with interim head coach Mike McCoy, and we can expect some improvement since the first meeting when the Colts won 41-20 in Week 3. The Titans come off a loss to New England, but Cam Ward showed some promise, finishing 25 of 34 for 255 yards and a TD with one interception. However, Tennessee needs to get its ground game going, as it rushed for just 39 yards. Nevertheless, the Colts showed vulnerability in their pass defense as Justin Herbert torched it with 37 completions for 423 yards and three TDs last week, although with two interceptions. Indianapolis is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games as a favorite of more than three points against teams off a double-digit loss, and the Colts are 0-9 ATS after scoring at least 35 points in their previous game. Take the Titans.

Indianapolis was fortunate, to say the least, to pull off a 29-28 win over Denver, which was penalized for leverage, allowing Spencer Shrader to kick a 45-yard field goal after he missed a 60-yard try that was nullified. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and they have gone UNDER in five straight Week 3 games. Four of the past six meetings have gone UNDER. Tennessee has a demanding early schedule, but the Titans have kept things relatively close while losing to the Broncos and Rams. Tennessee trailed 17-16 at the end of three quarters before Los Angeles outscored it 13-3 in the fourth. Cam Ward was more than adequate, completing 19 of 33 for 175 yards and a TD with no interceptions, and Tony Pollard ran for 92 yards on 20 carries. The Titans are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games following a double-digit home loss. The offensive line has been a problem for Tennessee, with Ward being constantly pressured. However, the Colts haven't had much of a pass rush in the early going this season. Indianapolis goes on the road for the first time, and it is 2-11 ATS as a favorite of more than three points against a team off a double-digit loss. Take the Titans and the UNDER.

Tennessee looked awful in losing 37-27 to Cincinnati, and they are looking for Mason Rudolph to start this game after Will Levis throws his fourth pick-6 this season. The Titans committed six turnovers, and the Bengals turned 24 straight points. The Titans looked so bad that coach Brian Callahan went on a rant about suggestions that his team was "soft." Tennessee has been a money burner this year with a 2-12 ATS record, and it has lost its past six December games. Indianapolis has won and covered the past three meetings, including a 20-17 win as a 2.5-point underdog on Oct. 13. The Colts have covered seven of 10 against AFC foes, and they kept it close against Denver before Jonathan Taylor inexplicably dropped the ball short of the goal line on what would have been a touchdown. The Broncos then outscored the Colts 21-0 in the fourth quarter. Tennessee has lost four of five on the road while allowing 36.4 points in the five games. Take the Colts.

Tennessee's defense leads the NFL yielding only 243.8 yards per game and the Titans are #1 in pass defense allowing just 124.0 per game. Unfortunately, the offense has been a different story although they do come off a 31-12 win over Miami. Indianapolis will be without Jonathan Taylor (ankle) again and starting QB Anthony Richardson (hip) is questionable. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the Titans' past six games after allowing fewer than 250 total yards their previous game. The Colts are dealing with several injuries, including their top wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who is doubtful with a back injury. Four of the past six meetings have stayed UNDER and Tennessee is 7-1 UNDER its past eight October games. The Titans beat the Dolphins despite Mason Rudolph throwing for only 85 yards and Will Levis will be back under center for this game. Take the UNDER.

Indianapolis has won three in a row with the defense allowing an average of 13 points. They're the seventh seed in the AFC playoff standings and have covered four of their five road games. The Colts are 58-38 ATS as a road favorite, 30-16 ATS after two straight covers as chalk, and 24-6 ATS on the road versus teams that force one or fewer turnovers per contest. The Titans are on a 3-6 SU/ATS run. Tennessee's offense is 27th in points scored (16.8 per game), plus 28th in total yards and on third down (31.82%), while the defense is 20th on third down and 17th in yards surrendered. The Colts won the first meeting, 23-16, and the Titans are 9-23 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. Play Indianapolis.