Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Tennessee looked awful in losing 37-27 to Cincinnati, and they are looking for Mason Rudolph to start this game after Will Levis throws his fourth pick-6 this season. The Titans committed six turnovers, and the Bengals turned 24 straight points. The Titans looked so bad that coach Brian Callahan went on a rant about suggestions that his team was "soft." Tennessee has been a money burner this year with a 2-12 ATS record, and it has lost its past six December games. Indianapolis has won and covered the past three meetings, including a 20-17 win as a 2.5-point underdog on Oct. 13. The Colts have covered seven of 10 against AFC foes, and they kept it close against Denver before Jonathan Taylor inexplicably dropped the ball short of the goal line on what would have been a touchdown. The Broncos then outscored the Colts 21-0 in the fourth quarter. Tennessee has lost four of five on the road while allowing 36.4 points in the five games. Take the Colts.

Tennessee's defense leads the NFL yielding only 243.8 yards per game and the Titans are #1 in pass defense allowing just 124.0 per game. Unfortunately, the offense has been a different story although they do come off a 31-12 win over Miami. Indianapolis will be without Jonathan Taylor (ankle) again and starting QB Anthony Richardson (hip) is questionable. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the Titans' past six games after allowing fewer than 250 total yards their previous game. The Colts are dealing with several injuries, including their top wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who is doubtful with a back injury. Four of the past six meetings have stayed UNDER and Tennessee is 7-1 UNDER its past eight October games. The Titans beat the Dolphins despite Mason Rudolph throwing for only 85 yards and Will Levis will be back under center for this game. Take the UNDER.

Indianapolis has won three in a row with the defense allowing an average of 13 points. They're the seventh seed in the AFC playoff standings and have covered four of their five road games. The Colts are 58-38 ATS as a road favorite, 30-16 ATS after two straight covers as chalk, and 24-6 ATS on the road versus teams that force one or fewer turnovers per contest. The Titans are on a 3-6 SU/ATS run. Tennessee's offense is 27th in points scored (16.8 per game), plus 28th in total yards and on third down (31.82%), while the defense is 20th on third down and 17th in yards surrendered. The Colts won the first meeting, 23-16, and the Titans are 9-23 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. Play Indianapolis. 

The Indianapolis defense is Top 10 in total yards allowed, on a 10-1 run UNDER the total. The offensive line is a weak spot with the ground game averaging 3.5 yards per carry and QB Matt Ryan (8 TDs, 7 INTs) has been sacked 21 times, the fourth-most in the NFL. They've gone six straight games UNDER the total on the road. Tennessee's offense is the second-worst in the league in total yards per game (278.2) and #25 on third down. Tennessee is off a bye week following a 21-17 win at Washington. The ground game is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, with even RB Derrick Henry at 3.9 ypc. Tennessee has already won at Indianapolis a few weeks ago, 24-17, in a game that went UNDER the total. This divisional rematch shapes up as another battle with more punts and field goals than points. Take Indianapolis/Tennessee UNDER the total.