Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Tampa Bay has been getting the money lately covering the number four consecutive games even while losing three of them outright. The Buccaneers are still in the hunt for the NFC South title due to a weak division and Indianapolis has lost seven straight home games against NFC opponents, including one versus the Buccaneers. The Colts beat hapless New England 10-6 two weeks ago and then had a bye and Tampa Bay still has a stout defense at No. 9 in the league allowing 20.0 points per game and #6 in rush defense yielding 90.0 yards. The Patriots actually outgained the Colts 340-264 overall and 167-70 on the ground, but Indianapolis took advantage of two New England turnovers. The Colts are 0-9 ATS at home off back-to-back straight up and ATS wins and Tampa Bay has covered five in a row as a road underdog and six straight playing on fieldturf. The Colts have lost four of five home games this season. Take the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles would like to win a game heading into the regular season after losing the first two in his first year as coach of the Buccaneers. Tom Brady is expected to play, and Bowles said that everyone who is healthy will play on Saturday. Tampa Bay will look to get its offense going after losing 13-3 to Tennessee last week when the defense played well enough with three sacks of Malik Willis. Indianapolis lost its first two games also, and it played all three backup quarterbacks while losing to Detroit, 27-26, in Week 2. Nick Foles was five of six for 56 yards, Jack Coan was seven of 11 for 83 yards, and Sam Ehlinger went nine of 11 for 136 yards. The Colts have already announced their starters for the regular season as the position battles have been settled, so they'll play mostly reserves in this game. Tampa Bay is 6-1 straight up and ATS in its past seven away games versus AFC South teams in preseason. Take the Buccaneers for a Max Play.

Indianapolis is still in the Wild Card hunt despite dropping two in a row. They are a dog, but have the far better defense and more consistent QB in Jacoby Brissett (16 TDs, six INTs). The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record, plus 11-4-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Tampa Bay is favored but has lost three of its four home games because of a bad defense at #31 against the pass, and #29 in points surrendered (28.8 pg). Erratic and turnover-prone QB Jameis Winston (22 TDs, 20 INTs) is regressing and has been sacked 40 times behind a lousy offensive line. The Bucs have failed to cover five straight home games and NFL home favorites with a losing record are 23-53 ATS after having won two of their previous three games. Play Indianapolis.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 45 points last week, and it was the first time a Tampa Bay team has scored 45 points or more points in a game since 2003. It was also the third time they have done so in the last 14 years, so I certainly wouldn't expect a repeat, as they were aided by four turnovers. The Colts are simply nowhere close to the offense they were last year - one that saw them topple the 40-point mark five times. This season they have not touched 40 at all, in fact they have not touched 30 points since week three. I think the total here is packing on a few points based on what we saw last week, but I don't think these teams are going to be lighting up the scoreboard this week. Tampa Bay's points gained last week were an illusion and after a game where they win by 14 points or more, they have come back to go 15-6 to the UNDER in their last 21. The Colts own a 7-3 mark to the UNDER in their last 10 on field turf. Take the UNDER in this one.