Indianapolis Colts vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

The AFC South's teams are a combined 12-20 on the season, but the Indianapolis Colts have put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack at 6-2. The Colts have certainly played to the level of the competition they face, both up and down. They have impressive wins vs. Seattle, San Francisco and Denver - arguably the top three teams in the league. And, they manhandled a helpless Jacksonville team, as everyone has. But against average competition the Colts struggled to beat Houston in overtime, slipped past Oakland by just 4 points, and lost to Miami and San Diego. What will the Colts do here against another weak team? St. Louis has had a pair of good showings vs. Tennessee and Seattle which would have both covered the number here. It just seems that Indianapolis doesn't seem to answer the bell vs. mediocre competition, and with a two-game lead in their division, I just don't see that changing here. The Colts' defense is cause for concern as they have given up an average of 26 points per game over their last four games. The Rams have played the good teams tough at 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. winning teams. Jeff Fisher is 90-65 ATS in his coaching career when getting points. I expect this one to be closer than it looks. Take the generous points on St. Louis.

I've been talking all year about how bad the Rams really are and oddsmakers seem to have finally figured this out. They are in for a tough game tonight as they are distracted by Martz' absence and the Rams are just badddd on the road. Indianapolis is playing great defense and their offense, despite not putting up huge numbers, still has the potential to explode on anyone. Everyone is waiting for that 40 point blowoyt performance from the Colts and many people think that game comes tonight. As a result, we see a very large line here at -13.5. It's hard to make a call on the side in this one. Certainly Indianapolis is one of the league's elite. But, St. Louis has the second ranked offense in the league and could be the first real test for Indianapolis this year. Indianapolis is allowing a crazy 5.8 points per game. Can they do that again tonight? No. But, they should be able to handle the Rams pretty easily in the end. My supercomputer simulation predicts a pretty easy Colts win but a St. Louis cover. While I think Indy could cover this large number, it's way too much for me to lay, being an underdog guy. But, no way I can back the Rams here. So, I've turned my attention to the total of 51.5 points. Folks, the public is all over the OVER here. The public LOVES high scoring sexy offenses. They see the Rams offense and think points. They are discounting, to some extent, Indianpolis' defensive success. They know that Indianapolis' hasn't been overly productive offensively this year but they still know that Peyton, Edge and Harrison can put up points in droves. In essence, they still view the Colts as a potent high-powered offense. In this game they see points on both sides. And, the public always leans towards the OVER anyway, just as they do favorites. The public doesn't like betting on the UNDER since it is more nerve-wracking in general than the OVER which can cover early. For all of these reasons, I think this TOTAL is inflated. As a general rule, when a very good offense meets a very good defense, defense wins. We see it time and time again. So, I think that Indianapolis' defense is going to do a good job on St. Louis tonight. I think St. Louis struggles to reach 20 points. And, the Rams defense is going attempt to do what other teams have done to the Colts this year - which has been effective at holding Indy to an average of 21 points per game. The Rams defense isn't that good so they won't have as much success as other teams but they'll have enough success. Through five weeks, Indianapolis games have averaged 27 total points. Rams games have averaged 55 points. Who will dictate this game? The Colts - not the Rams. This game is going UNDER the total. A little icing: Tony Dungy-lead teams have gone UNDER 16 out of 21 times when facing poor defensive teams (allowing >350 yards/game). One star on the UNDER 51.5 points here.