Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

San Francisco has won four in a row and ranks 10th in the NFL in total yards and points (24.6 per game). The defense has allowed 15.75 points per game during this four-game winning streak. Due to devastating injuries, Indianapolis has been forced to start QB Philip Rivers. After a long hiatus, it's clear his arm strength isn't there. They come off an 18-16 loss to Seattle, with the offense averaging 17 points over the last three games. The Colts have lost four in a row, and are on a 4-2 run UNDER the total.

Combine the 49ers (-240) and the San Francisco at Indianapolis UNDER 46.5 (-115) into a 2-team parlay at +165 odds.

San Francisco's defense has been ahead of the offense. In two games the offense has run for 3.8 and 3.1 yards per rush, with five turnovers, while going 11-of-26 on third down. Injuries have been a concern on offense, so it's going to take some time to get in sync. But the defense has been sharp because they upgraded the depth with defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, DE Arik Armstead, DB Jimmie Ward and linebacker Eli Harold. The defense will do well against a Colts offense that has also been out of sync. They come off a 20-19 win over Baltimore, but the first-team offense gained a total of 44 yards. QB Andrew Luck was 6-of-13 passing for 50 yards, with an interception along with being sacked twice in 23 plays. He was without the second-and third-most important players on offense, receiver T.Y. Hilton (shoulder) and left tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring). The offense had just 69 yards rushing, 3.1 yards per carry, and in two games they've turned it over three times while going 10-of-34 on third down. Luck is 12-of-22 for 114 yards in seven series in the preseason and still has yet to display the deep ball. Indianapolis is on a 5-1 run UNDER the total in preseason and this shapes up as another defensive duel. Take the UNDER.

The San Francisco 49ers saw their game kick 11 FGs last week, and zero TDs. Unfortunately, six were made by Arizona, in an 18-15 loss. This has left the total here a bit on the low side. What is more random that both teams were going up and down the field the entire game and just could not push the ball over the goal line. That was at least 11 scoring opportunities by both teams, none of which were converted to TDs. I would think a revision to the mean is likely to occur in this one. Indianapolis has seen three of their four games play OVER the total, as the defense has allowed 40+ twice already. The Niners have proven they can score against a mediocre defense with 39 against the Rams a couple of weeks ago. San Francisco has a long history of playing over the total against a bad running team, those that average 3.5 yards per carry or less on the season where they are 41-20 to the OVER in their last 61 when facing them. Play on the OVER in this one.