Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Indianapolis has taken advantage of a mediocre schedule to start the season 7-1. Five of their wins have been against Miami, Tennessee twice, Las Vegas, and Arizona. Those teams have a combined record of 7-23. The Colts also were fortunate to beat Denver, which committed a costly penalty in the final seconds. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games after totaling more than 350 yards in their previous game. They did allow 341 yards against the Titans last week. Pittsburgh has won 16 of the past 20 meetings with Indianapolis, and the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games. Mike Tomlin is 20-7-1 ATS as a home underdog. The Steelers have gone OVER five of their past seven games, and the past five meetings have gone OVER. Pittsburgh has won five straight Week 9 games. The Colts are 6-1 OVER after scoring at least 30 points in their previous game, and they have gone OVER six of seven on the road. The Colts are 5-1 OVER following a win. Aaron Rodgers finished 24 of 36 for 219 yards and two TDs with no interceptions against Green Bay, but the defense faltered in the second half. Tomlin is 59-48 ATS off a loss. Take the Steelers and the OVER.

Pittsburgh's not dazzling anyone on offense, ranked 24th in yards and points. But they're 3-0 with a dominant defense, No. 1 in yards allowed, points given up (8.7 per game), and on third down (21.88%). The Steelers are on a 22-12 run UNDER the total. Indianapolis has a struggling offense, with young QB Anthony Richardson (three TDs, six interceptions) ranked 26th on third down. The defense is 14th in points allowed (20.3 per game). Look for more punts and field goal attempts than points. Take Pittsburgh/Indianapolis UNDER the total. 

This is a big game for both teams, and it will go a long way to determine which one of these teams leaves this game with a leg up and qualifying for the post-season. The Steelers will have T.J. Watt back after suffering a concussion in his last game, but has been cleared to play. This may be a favorable matchup for the Steelers defense. They do a lot of blitzing and the Colts are last in the league based on yards per attempt vs the blitz. The matchups in the trenches where games are won and lost are decidedly in favor of Pittsburgh in this game. Coach Tomlin has a great track record in anticipated close games as his team is 66-49 ATS when the line is -3 to +3 since he has been in Pittsburgh. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is only 3-7, but Mike Tomlin's team has played one of the toughest schedules in the league. The defense has been bolstered by the return of T.J. Watt after he missed seven games and he had six tackles and an interception last week against Cincinnati. Jeff Saturday eked out a win in his first game as coach against Las Vegas, but the Colts reverted to losing close games as they were defeated by Philadelphia 17-16 last week. The Steelers will concentrate on containing Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 84 yards on 22 carries against the Eagles and Matt Ryan completed 23 of 32 for 213 yards and no touchdowns. Kenny Pickett still is a question mark, but he did finish 25 of 42 for 265 yards and a TD with no picks versus the Bengals. Pittsburgh is 6-4 UNDER and the Colts are 9-2 UNDER this year while averaging only 15.7 points and they are #25 in total yards of offense. The Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS their past 51 games after giving up at least 30 points their previous game and they are 46-20-1 UNDER their past 67 road games. Indianapolis is 14-2 UNDER dating to last season. Take the Steelers and the UNDER.

Pittsburgh doesn't look anything like the team that started the season 11-0 and it comes off a 27-17 loss to lowly Cincinnati, which broke a streak of 11 straight wins against the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger was held to 19 passing yards in the first half, and he finished only 20 of 38 for 170 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Steelers have averaged only 17 points their last four games while Indianapolis has averaged 31.8 points its last six games, winning five of them. The Colts are out to avenge a 26-24 loss to Pittsburgh last season and they are 5-0 ATS their last five games as road favorites. Indianapolis is 15-6 ATS versus teams with winning records and it has covered its last four road contests. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS their last seven December games. Pittsburgh still has a stout defense, but the Colts are right behind, allowing 334.1 yards per game for #7 in the league, while allowing only 22.9 points per game. Philip Rivers completed 22 of 28 for 228 yards and two TDs as the Colts beat the Texans, and Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown. Play the Colts on the moneyline.