Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

The New Orleans defense is wearing down allowing 51 points in the last two games. They lost both as a favorite each time, coming off a 31-24 defeat at home to Jacksonville. The Saints are 15th in red zone defense (52.63%). Indianapolis has a losing record despite scoring 20 or more points in every game. The defense just allowed 39 points to Cleveland to drop to 21st in yards surrendered, 23rd in red zone defense (61.90%), and 30th in points allowed (27.3 per game). The Colts are 75-50 OVER the total in October games, plus 56-36 OVER after a home loss. Take New Orleans/Indianapolis OVER the total. 

The way to attack the Saints is with a ball-control offense, and Indianapolis comes into town with an excellent ground game. Mobile QB Jacoby Brissett and running back Marlon Mack anchor a ground attack that is seventh in the NFL with 133.4 yards rushing per contest. The Colts are 11-2 ATS against winning teams, as well as a 6-2-2 ATS run on the road. They've only been an underdog this large one other time this season, beating the Chiefs (19-13). The New Orleans defense has slipped badly, allowing 28 points per game the last five contests. New Orleans placed former first-round picks DE Marcus Davenport (foot) and DT Sheldon Rankins (ankle) on injured reserve this week. They come off a 48-46 loss at home to San Francisco allowing 516 yards, including 162 yards rushing. New Orleans is 30-50 ATS at home against losing teams, while the Colts are 70-44 ATS versus offenses that average 5.65+ yards per play. Play Indianapolis.

New Orleans is 2-0 and heads to Indianapolis, but the defense has allowed 24 point in each of their first two games. And that was against a pair of weak offensive teams in the Rams and Titans. Now they face the up-tempo Colts offense. The Colts have an outstanding one-two QB punch of Andrew Luck and veteran Matt Hassellbeck. This offense upgraded the wideout spot during the offseason and now has three receivers who have achieved 1,000-yard seasons. The depth at wide receiver plays right into the hands of offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. He believes that his offense is geared toward featuring individual players and creating mismatches, and the possibilities are pretty endless with this group of wideouts. Indy is 0-2 and hasn't shown much so far, so week three is the time to do it - especially at home. Last year the Colts were home for week three in August and played its best preseason game in a 27-6 wipeout of the Browns. Go with the home team on the moneyline.

Colts fans are in shock at an unheard-of 0-6 mark to start the season. As bad as Indy has been, they are better now than when they started the sesaon with Kerry Collins under center. Collins was generating just 4.9 yards per attempt and completing less than 50% of his passes. Curtis Painter has improved that mark tremendously at 7.9 yards per attempt and he has thrown five TD passes for a passer rating of just shy of 94. It has been worth about 5 points per game to the offense and with Painter the Colts are 2-0 ATS getting 10+. Last week they had things in hand vs. the Bengals and only a fluke fumble-turned defensive touchdown kept them from covering the spread. The week prior they had a 17 point lead vs. Kansas City but blew the lead. The reality is that this team is a few plays away form being 4-0 ATS since Painter took over. But, they are not and they have 0 wins on the season so the pointspreads in their games until they win are going to be bigger than they should be. The Saints are known for offense, and bettors love this type of team as the public lines up behind New Orleans here. The oddsmakers knew that when setting the figure, and the line is taxed and value is on the Colts as a result. Teams from Week 6 on, that have zero wins are a 62% blind ATS bet, so these hapless NFL teams are getting help from a two sources. On one side, the oddsmakers are giving them extra points. On the other side, their opponent sees an easy win and coasts through the game. Going back to when the Colts had their bad teams in the pre-Manning era and this year, they are 10-2 ATS when getting +10.5 or more. Drew Brees giveth, but also taketh away as he has eight INTs already on the season, which is on the heels of throwing 22 picks a year ago. The Saints are certainly buying into that bad team, no-show scenario as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a losing team. The Saints are also 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games vs. losing teams. That includes a 5-16 ATS mark vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are just 7-16 ATS after a game in which they gained 400+ yards. Indy should cover this huge number.