Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

Indianapolis won last year's meeting 16-10, going UNDER by 18 points. The Dolphins have gone UNDER in eight of 10 road games. The Colts are 2-14-1 ATS in their past 17 games in Week 1, 0-10-1 straight up in their past 11 season openers. They finished last season 1-5 ATS in their previous six games, and the Colts will start this year with Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Jones was a bust with the Giants, but he was able to beat out Anthony Richardson for the No. 1 spot with Indianapolis. Jones had 70 TD passes and 47 interceptions with an 84.3 QB rating in six seasons with the Giants. He was 22-36-1 as a starter. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa is healthy for now, and he threw for 2,867 yards and 19 TDs with seven picks in 11 games in 2024. The Colts have upgraded their defense, especially in the secondary, with the additions of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. However, Miami holds the edge on both sides of the ball. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER.

Miami broke through with its first win in four games defeating New England 15-10 two weeks ago before a bye week and it went UNDER by 12 points. The Dolphins are 6-1 UNDER their past seven games dating to last season and 4-0 UNDER after allowing fewer than 150 passing yards their previous game. Also, Miami is 6-0 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points their previous game. Indianapolis pulled out a 20-17 win over Tennessee with Joe Flacco coming up big again throwing a touchdown pass to Michael Pittman for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter and the game stayed UNDER by 4.5 points. Pittman is questionable again with a lingering back injury and Flacco may get the start again in place of Anthony Richardson. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS their past 10 meetings at Indianaplois and they are 9-3 UNDER against the AFC South. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER.

After playing the Seahawks, Rams, and Titans, the Colts finally get a team they match up better against. The three teams they've played all made the postseason last year, and two were division winners. Indianapolis gave the Rams all they could handle in a 27-24 game, then last week were 14-13 in the fourth quarter at Tennessee. The Colts are 8-3-1 ATS after a spread loss, plus 15-5-1 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record. Miami has lost two straight and is in a tough situational spot here, losing at Las Vegas last week in OT, 31-28. That was one week after their home opener, getting destroyed by the Bills, 35-0. Dolphins starting QB Tua Tagovailoa (fractured ribs) is still out, so backup Jacoby Brissett gets the nod. Tagovailoa and Brissett have combined for more interceptions (2) than TDs (1) on an offense that is #29 in total yards, #22 in rushing, #28 in passing, and #29 in points (15 points per game). The defense is #24 in yards allowed, #26 at stopping the run, and last in third-down percentage. This is the first time all season the Dolphins have been favored, and they're 13-28 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards per game in three straight contests. Also, the underdog is 12-2 ATS when these teams clash. Play Indianapolis.

Miami finally won a game and even though it was against the lowly Jets it still was cause for celebration for a team that doesn't want to go 0-16, even if it does want the first draft pick. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three touchdown passes and finished 24-of-36 for 288 yards with no turnovers. The Dolphins covered the spread against Indianapolis in 2018, losing 27-24 as a nine-point underdog. The Colts have not covered their last two games and come off a 26-24 loss at Pittsburgh when Adam Vinatieri missed a 43-yard field goal attempt with 1:43 left. Veteran QB Brian Hoyer replaced injured Jacoby Brissett and passed for three TDs and drove his team into field goal range in the final two minutes.  Brissett is probable for this game. Miami has covered the spread in four in a row and it's 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings at Indianapolis and the road team is 7-1 ATS. The Colts are 0-5-1 ATS their last six games against teams with losing records as they play down to their competition. The Dolphins are 9-4 OVER their last 13 November games and Indianapolis has gone OVER four of its last five home games. Play the Dolphins and the OVER.

This is a great situational spot for the rested visitors. Miami comes off its bye week and the rest was needed, getting a ton of players back. Cornerback Bobby McCain was removed from the NFL concussion protocol this week and practiced, all but assuring he will be available to play Sunday. WR DeVante Parker and Kenyan Drake, both nursing shoulder injuries, are back at practice. The Dolphins offensive line returned Ted Larsen, Charles Harris, Laremy Tunsil, and Ja Wuan James to practice, too. All four players missed the last game. QB Ryan Tannehill has missed five starts but is expected to start. Miami's offense will do well against an Indianapolis defense that is #20 in yards allowed, #23 against the pass, #18 in points. Any NFL team like Miami in a game involving two weak defensive teams that allow 23-27 points per game in the second half of the season are 39-15 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. The Colts come off a blowout win over Tennessee but are 3-9-1 ATS after scoring 30+ points in their previous game. The road team has covered six of seven when these teams clash and the Dolphins are on a 7-1 ATS run in Indianapolis. Play on Miami.