Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers Point Spread Picks

Indianapolis soared OVER the total by 12 points in its 31-27 win over Arizona. Daniel Jones threw two TD passes and rushed for a score, and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 123 yards. The Colts are averaging 32.3 points this season. They have gone OVER six of nine dating to last season and five of their past six road games. Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER against AFC opponents and 6-1 OVER following an ATS loss. Also, the Colts are 6-1 OVER after allowing fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and they are 11-1 OVER coming off a non-conference home win. The Chargers have gone OVER six of eight home games and 10 of 12 against the AFC South. They scored their most points this season while defeating Miami 29-27, and it went OVER by 13 points last week. Los Angeles totaled 403 yards of offense, and Justin Herbert threw for 264 yards and two TDs. Take the OVER.

Indianapolis has had some extra time to think about blowing the biggest lead in NFL history and scoring only three points in the second half against Minnesota. The Colts had scored more than 19 points just once their previous seven games and then when they finally show some offense they let it get away. Los Angeles has gone UNDER three in a row, including its 17-14 win over Tennessee last week when the Chargers rushed for only 74 yards and still won even with Justin Herbert throwing two interceptions and no touchdown passes. Jonathan Taylor is out for the year for Indianapolis and coach Jeff Saturday has been determined to keep running the ball anyway with Deon Jackson and Zack Moss. The Colts average 17.5 points compared to 22.3 for the Chargers, who are 23-11-1 UNDER their past 35 December games and 7-2 UNDER overall on Monday nights. Indianapolis has gone UNDER six of eight home games and the Colts are 11-3 UNDER their past 14 versus AFC teams. Play the UNDER as a Max Play.

It was a dismal August for Indianapolis, culminating in star QB Andrew Luck's retirement. Now they open the season on the road on the West Coast. QB Jacoby Brissett has to step in and the Colts are 1-10 ATS in Week 1, losing 34-23 at home in last season's opener. They face a Los Angeles Chargers team off a strong campaign along with a terrific offseason, adding veteran linebacker Thomas Davis and nabbing safety Nasir Adderley in the draft. They stocked up on an already strong D-line by adding defensive tackle Cortez Broughton, LB Emeke Egbule, and edge defender Chris Peace. This defense was top 10 in 2018 in points allowed (20.6 points per game), total 'D', run and pass defense. QB Philip Rivers is off a season where he threw 32 TDs, 12 picks and returns plenty of talented targets. The Chargers are 29-5 ATS against the AFC South Division, including 7-2 ATS against the Colts. Play the LA Chargers.

The San Diego Chargers have ruled the roost vs. Indianapolis over the years. They own a 12-5 straight-up mark against them to go along with a 14-3 ATS mark, and four of the five losses have come by a scant five points or less. Most thought the Chargers would suffer greatly offensively last week after their best receiver Keenan Allen went down, but before you could blink they were piling it on vastly improved jags, 35-0 after three quarters. That was without the services of Danny Woodhead as well who landed on the IR with a knee injury suffered in their last game. San Diego won just four games last season, but closed covering their last four, and with their first two being covered, they have run the ATS winning streak to six, and are still under the radar. The Colts allowed 39 to the Lions and 34 to the Broncos to open the season. They allowed 27 points or more in seven of their games last season, and not much appears to have changed. The Colts are now a dismal 2-7 straight-up in Andrew Luck's last seven starts, and QB Phillip Rivers has owned the road as a dog, where he is 20-11 ATS in his career, and 5-1 SU and ATS vs. Indianapolis. San Diego has rushed for 150+ in their first two games, and the Colts have allowed an average of 125 rushing yards so far, while the defense has been burned for 400+ yards in each of their first two contests. The Chargers own seven straight road covers, while Indy has posted six straight ATS losses after allowing 30+ in their previous game. Take San Diego.

The Indianapolis Colts have started strong at 4-1, and no win was bigger than last week's thrilling home win vs. Seattle. The Colts came from behind to win a 34-28 shootout. Coming off that game on short rest, it could be tough for a young team to get sky-high again here. This is a hungry San Diego team that is looking to even their record at 3-3. A loss here drops them to 2-4 which, if not catastrophic, really puts a damper on their hopes for the season. This is in essence a must-win game for the Bolts. History shows that the Colts are indeed likely to be flat here. Good teams (those over .500) that won as a home dog in their previous game are 80-129 ATS in their next game since 1989. That is even worse from game five on (legitimizing their winning record), as they are 43-91 ATS, including 29-62-3 ATS if playing on the road. San Diego finds themselves in a good spot, as teams that are playing as a home dog that will be road favorites in their next game (San Diego at Jacksonville next week), are 119-65-9 ATS. Andrew Luck is getting a lot of attention, and deservedly so. But, according to the stats, he's the second best QB playing tonight. If we look at traditional passer rating, Rivers comes in as the #2 QB in the league with a rating of 110.6 (only behind Peyton Manning). Luck is rated 10th with a 94.1 rating. ESPN's new QBR rating agrees, rating Rivers second only to Manning, at 78.5, again ahead of Luck. Rivers has found new life under Mike McCoy and I expect him to play well tonight. Yes, the Colts are 4-1 while San Diego is just 2-3. But, the Chargers would be 3-2 coming into this game if not for a 5-0 turnover disadvantage last week vs. the Raiders. If San Diego doesn't turn it over five times last week, then they are probably favored here. We get line value on the home team, in need. The Chargers have the second best QB in the league thus far, and San Diego is desperate for a win. Take the Chargers.